野村：中国每周图表-房地产下滑先于出口下滑

Investment Rating - The report does not explicitly provide an investment rating for the industry Core Insights - The property sector in China continues to decline, with new home sale volume growth dropping to -15.9% year-on-year in April from 2.5% in March, indicating ongoing challenges despite policy changes [1] - High-frequency data shows mixed results for exports, with a significant drop in ocean container bookings from China to the US by over 60% since the implementation of new tariffs, while container throughput at major ports in China remains up about 10% year-on-year [1] - Industrial profit growth in China improved slightly in March, posting a positive 2.6% year-on-year, rebounding from -0.3% in January-February, driven by robust industrial production growth [3] - Chinese e-commerce giants are facing challenges due to impending tariff increases, with Shein and Temu adjusting prices by approximately 10% in response to rising costs, which may impact their market presence [4] Summary by Sections Property - New home sale volume growth in major cities fell to -15.9% year-on-year in April from 2.5% in March, indicating a continued decline in the property sector [1] - Secondary home transaction volumes in a sample of 14 major cities increased to 29.7% year-on-year in April from 12.8% a week earlier, with significant growth in Shenzhen [10][12] Trade - Container throughput at major ports showed a slowdown in growth to 9.7% year-on-year on April 27 from 12.4% a week earlier, while cargo throughput increased to 10.6% year-on-year [10] - The number of ship departures from China to the US plunged to -12.6% year-on-year on April 27 from 14.2% a week earlier, indicating a significant decline in trade activity [10] Mobility - Passenger trips via airlines are expected to increase by 8.0% year-on-year during the Labour Day holiday, with cross-border trips anticipated to jump by 27.0% year-on-year [2] Industrial Performance - Industrial profit growth improved to 2.6% year-on-year in March, rebounding from earlier declines, with mixed sector performances noted [3] - The auto manufacturing sector saw profit growth tumble to -6.2% year-to-date year-on-year in March, contrasting with improvements in the electrical machinery and equipment sector [3]