美银：The Flow ShowSoft Macro meets Micro Soft

Investment Rating - The report indicates a neutral investment sentiment with the BofA Bull & Bear Indicator at 3.6, down from 3.9, suggesting a cautious approach to market conditions [10][56][58]. Core Insights - The report highlights significant outflows from gold and US equities, with $1.5 billion outflow from gold and $8.9 billion outflow from US equities, while Japan and Europe equities saw inflows of $4.4 billion and $3.4 billion respectively [20][34]. - The report notes a substantial decline in oil prices, down 56% since the Russia/Ukraine conflict in 2022, which is interpreted as a signal of potential recession or geopolitical peace [5][13]. - The report emphasizes a strong capital expenditure in technology, tracking at $320 billion for 2025, which may alleviate recession concerns despite soft macroeconomic data [4][5]. Summary by Sections Market Performance - Year-to-date performance shows gold at +22.0%, government bonds at +6.6%, investment-grade bonds at +4.9%, high-yield bonds at +2.9%, cash at +1.4%, while stocks are at -0.3% and commodities at -5.3% [2]. Economic Indicators - The 2-year Treasury yield has decreased by 70 basis points since the inauguration, and oil prices have dropped by 20% [4]. - The consensus for US GDP growth in 2026 has been revised down to 1.5% from 2% [5]. Fund Flows - Recent fund flows indicate $8.3 billion inflow to stocks, $3.7 billion to bonds, and $2.3 billion to crypto, while there were significant outflows from gold and US equities [14][20]. - BofA private clients have shifted towards "deflationary defensives" such as utilities and high-dividend ETFs, indicating a strategic pivot in investment preferences [16][40]. Sector Analysis - Inflows were noted in the materials sector ($1.4 billion) and technology sector ($0.8 billion), while outflows were observed in energy, consumer, healthcare, financials, and real estate sectors [36].