摩根士丹利：中国政府的刺激措施如何缓解关税冲击

Investment Rating - The report does not explicitly state an investment rating for the industry but indicates a cautious outlook due to tariff impacts and economic conditions [1][2]. Core Insights - The report anticipates a slowdown in China's GDP growth by over 1 percentage point in 2Q 2025 due to high tariffs, with a gradual recovery expected in the second half of the year [2][22]. - Tariffs are currently at prohibitive levels, with expectations for gradual de-escalation through negotiations, although they are projected to remain elevated [3][4]. - The Chinese government is expected to implement a stimulus package of Rmb1-1.5 trillion to support the economy amid these challenges [2][22]. Summary by Sections Tariff Assumptions - Current US-China tariffs are viewed as excessively high, with a terminal effective US tariff rate projected at 45% [4]. - The report suggests that if tariffs remain at current levels, there could be a 0.5 percentage point downside to the GDP growth forecast for 2025 [5][15]. Economic Stimulus - The Politburo meeting indicated a focus on faster rollout of a Rmb2 trillion stimulus, but the approach remains reactive rather than proactive [16][19]. - The report highlights a shift in policy towards consumption over time, although investment remains the primary focus for immediate economic support [18][19]. Growth Projections - The report predicts a significant deceleration in GDP growth to below 4.5% in 2Q 2025, down from 5.4% in 1Q 2025, primarily due to tariff impacts and policy responses [21][22]. - For 2H 2025, growth is expected to slow further, with real GDP growth projected at 3.7% year-over-year [22].