摩根士丹利：中国新兴前沿领域 28 强-投资于发展中的趋势

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "In-Line" view on the industrial sector in China, indicating a balanced outlook on investment opportunities [9]. Core Insights - The report emphasizes the structural competitive advantages that China possesses in emerging sectors, despite facing challenges such as debt, deflation, and demographic shifts [3][8]. - A six-factor framework is introduced to analyze the successful ingredients driving industrial upgrades and to identify future investment opportunities [1][31]. Summary by Sections Industrial Upgrade Focus - China's industrial upgrades are driven by significant opportunities in advanced supply chains and manufacturing sectors, with a focus on machinery, vehicles, new energy, semiconductors, aerospace, AI, software, pharmaceuticals, humanoid robots, and eVOTL [4][5]. - The report identifies 28 stocks that are well-positioned to benefit from these trends, either through supply chain advantages or as key players in new industries [5][49]. Six-Factor Framework 1. R&D Investment: R&D spending in China is critical for industrial upgrades, with manufacturing accounting for 60% of total R&D as of 2023. The report notes that while China's R&D as a percentage of GDP is around 2.7%, it is improving [15][35][56]. 2. Talent Pool: China has the largest number of engineering graduates globally, with approximately 3 million students graduating in 2022, which supports innovation in emerging industries [37][38]. 3. Capital Inflows: Significant capital inflows have been observed, particularly in semiconductors and machinery, with Rmb20 trillion in capital recorded from 2021 to 2024 [39]. 4. Government Support: The Chinese government provides substantial support through subsidies, tax incentives, and regulatory frameworks, particularly in new energy, semiconductors, and aerospace [39][40]. 5. Market Demand: Strong market demand drives operational efficiencies and encourages companies to invest in R&D and advanced technologies, with consumer discretionary and healthcare sectors expected to grow [40][41]. 6. Supply Chain Foundations: The report highlights the importance of moving up the value chain, particularly in industries like semiconductors and machinery, to enhance margins and localization rates [41][43]. Investment Opportunities - The report identifies key industries poised for growth, including semiconductors, aerospace, AI, and pharmaceuticals, and emphasizes the importance of monitoring emerging start-ups [3][34][49]. - AI is highlighted as a significant opportunity, with projections indicating it could contribute Rmb11 trillion to China's GDP by 2035 [45][46]. Stock Recommendations - The report provides a detailed playbook of 28 stocks that are strategically positioned to capitalize on the industrial upgrade theme, spanning various sectors including technology, industrials, and materials [50][51].