摩根士丹利：中国股票策略-在对等（关税）时代如何布局

Investment Rating - The report maintains an Equal Weight (EW) rating on MSCI China within the global Emerging Markets/Asia Pacific ex-Japan (EM/APxJ) framework, indicating structural improvements in China but acknowledging growth challenges due to tariff shocks [3]. Core Insights - The report highlights several sustainable structural improvements for MSCI China, including a recovery in Return on Equity (ROE), increased investibility, and a positive earnings revision cycle, while also noting the offsetting challenges posed by tariffs and geopolitical uncertainties [15][17]. - The MSCI China ROE is expected to recover and catch up with MSCI Emerging Markets (EM) by 2027, driven by corporate self-help initiatives and a less macro-influenced offshore Chinese universe [17]. - The report indicates a shift in valuation regime for MSCI China, moving from a forward Price-to-Earnings (P/E) ratio of 8-10x to 10-12x, reflecting a regulatory shift towards revitalization and ongoing technological advancements [17]. Summary by Sections Economic and Earnings Estimates - The report assesses various factors impacting the economic and earnings landscape, indicating a neutral stance on economic estimates and a neutral valuation outlook as of April 2025 [13]. - Earnings estimates have been on a downward revision path due to uncertain macro momentum, with a consensus EPS growth forecast for MSCI China at 9% for 2025 and 12% for 2026 [54]. Price Targets and Valuation - The report presents a base case target price for MSCI China at 67, reflecting a 5% downside from the current price, with a forward P/E of 10.5x [7]. - The bull case target price for MSCI China is set at 83, indicating an 18% upside, while the bear case target price is at 47, representing a 33% downside [7]. Sector Performance - The report details sector-specific EPS contributions, with the Consumer Discretionary sector expected to grow by 14% in 2025, while Financials are projected to decline by 1% [54]. - The Information Technology sector is anticipated to show significant growth, with an EPS growth forecast of 23% for 2025 [54]. Consumer Sentiment and Policy Stimulus - Consumer sentiment has weakened, with increasing concerns over job security and inflation impacting household spending [77][80]. - The report notes a modest fiscal package announced at the National People's Congress (NPC), with a focus on technology and limited consumption-related stimulus [83][85].