摩根士丹利：石油市场供应充足-如何应对？

Investment Rating - The industry view is rated as Attractive, indicating a positive outlook for the sector over the next 12-18 months [8]. Core Insights - Well-supplied oil markets in the second half of 2025 are expected to lead to positive earnings surprises for refiners and fuel retailers in Asia, particularly in India, Thailand, and Australia [2][10]. - The OPEC+ decision to increase production quotas by 411 kb/d in June contributes to an anticipated oversupply of 1.1 mbpd in oil markets for 2H25 and 1.9 mbpd in 2026, leading to lowered Brent oil price forecasts of US$57.5/bbl for 2H25 and US$56.9/bbl for 2026 [4]. - Key beneficiaries identified include HPCL, Indian Oil, GAIL, Reliance, and Ampol, while PTTEP is noted as a key underweight [5][10]. - Asian refiners have consistently outperformed or matched regional benchmarks since 2015, with refined product supply from 2025 to 2027 expected to remain below demand growth [10][11]. Summary by Sections Oil Market Dynamics - The report highlights a significant oversupply in the oil market, with projections of 1.1 mbpd in 2H25 and 1.9 mbpd in 2026, alongside a reduction in Brent oil price forecasts [4]. - The refining cycle is expected to see incremental supply growth of approximately 0.4-0.5 mbpd from 2025 to 2027, against a demand growth of 0.7-0.8 mbpd [11]. Company Performance - Fuel refiners and retailers are projected to maintain margins near mid-cycle levels despite declining industry cracks in 1Q25, with Indian fuel retailers benefiting from stable fuel prices and lower oil costs [10]. - Thai refiners, particularly Thai Oil and PTTOR, are highlighted as strong cash flow plays due to rising crude supply and lower working capital needs [10]. Regional Insights - The report emphasizes that Indian fuel retailers are well-positioned due to steady fuel prices and lower oil costs, with no immediate risk of fuel price cuts [10]. - In Australia, Ampol is identified as a key beneficiary from lower oil prices, reinforcing the positive outlook for the region's refiners [10].