沥青早报-20250506

Group 1: Report's Core View - This week, due to the tightening supply of crude oil and rising oil prices, asphalt prices increased. Shandong's spot prices rose slightly, and the futures market strengthened marginally. With low production and a slight increase in shipments, factory inventories continued to decline while social inventories increased, resulting in overall stable inventories and a marginal improvement. The supply in the north is tight, while that in the east and south is relatively abundant. The positives include low inventory levels, tight and expensive heavy - oil raw materials, and a decrease in April production schedules. The negatives are the lack of demand improvement, weak spot prices in the east and south, and price cuts by Sinopec. The fundamentals have slightly improved, with short - term prices remaining weakly stable. Inventories are expected to gradually increase at a low level in the first half of the year. It is recommended to monitor actual inventory conditions and the impact of US sanctions on raw materials. Prices are expected to fluctuate with crude oil, and it is advisable to consider long positions in distant contracts such as the 09 contract [1] Group 2: Data Summary Spot and Futures Prices - From April 24th to April 30th, the low - end spot prices in East China and Shandong remained unchanged at 3520 yuan/ton and 3370 yuan/ton respectively, and the low - end spot price in Northeast China remained at 3750 yuan/ton. The futures price decreased by 22 yuan to 3408 yuan/ton, and the main - contract basis increased by 22 to 112 [1] Other Prices - The FOB price from South Korea to East China remained at 463, and the RMB - converted price decreased by 1 to 4076 yuan. The price of Shandong coker feedstock remained at 4260 yuan [1] Production and Inventory - The daily asphalt production is 6.3 (+0) million tons. This week, factory inventories decreased while social inventories increased, with overall stable inventories [1] Market Conditions - Shandong's spot prices remained stable, with a market reference price of 3510 - 3700 yuan/ton. The asphalt futures market fluctuated, and crack spread profits were at a moderate level. Gasoline and diesel prices in Shandong increased slightly [1]