瑞达期货铝类产业日报-20250506

Group 1: Report Summary - The report is an aluminum industry daily report dated May 6, 2025, written by Wang Fuhui [1][2] Group 2: Investment Rating - No investment rating is provided in the report Group 3: Core Views - The alumina main contract oscillates weakly, with increasing open interest, spot premium, and strengthening basis. Its fundamentals may be in a stage of slightly shrinking supply and stable - to - increasing demand. It is recommended to trade with a light position with a weak - oscillation strategy [2] - The Shanghai aluminum main contract oscillates weakly, with decreasing open interest, spot premium, and weakening basis. The electrolytic aluminum market is entering a stage of synchronous growth in supply and demand and benign inventory digestion. It is recommended to trade with a light position with an oscillation strategy [2] Group 4: Market Data Summary Futures Market - The closing price of the Shanghai aluminum main contract is 19,785 yuan/ton, down 125 yuan; the closing price of the alumina futures main contract is 2,675 yuan/ton, down 54 yuan [2] - The LME aluminum three - month quote is 2,431.50 US dollars/ton, up 15.50 US dollars; the LME aluminum inventory is 411,575 tons, down 2,000 tons [2] Spot Market - The Shanghai Non - ferrous A00 aluminum price is 19,850 yuan/ton; the Yangtze River Non - ferrous Market AOO aluminum price is 20,090 yuan/ton, down 270 yuan [2] Upstream Situation - The alumina production is 747.52 million tons, down 3.23 million tons; the demand for alumina (electrolytic aluminum part) is 723.72 million tons, up 76.70 million tons [2] Industry Situation - The total production capacity of electrolytic aluminum is 4,517.20 million tons, unchanged; the production of aluminum products is 598.17 million tons, down 12.49 million tons [2] Downstream and Application - The production of automobiles is 3.0446 million vehicles, down 0.454 million vehicles; the export volume of unwrought aluminum and aluminum products is 51 million tons, up 14 million tons [2] Option Situation - The 20 - day historical volatility of Shanghai aluminum is 18.20%, up 0.05%; the 40 - day historical volatility of Shanghai aluminum is 14.36%, up 0.06% [2] Group 5: Industry News - In April, the US employment growth was strong, with the unemployment rate remaining stable. The non - farm payrolls increased by 177,000, higher than the expected 130,000, and the unemployment rate remained at 4.2% [2] - The Ministry of Finance plans to increase the deficit rate to 4% this year, with a deficit scale of 5.66 trillion yuan [2] - The eurozone's April manufacturing PMI was 49, higher than the expected 48.7 [2] - The "May Day" holiday saw a consumer boom in the "trade - in" policy. New energy vehicle sales in April were strong, with significant year - on - year growth for many brands [2] - In April, the manufacturing PMI was 49.0%, down 1.5 percentage points from the previous month, but high - tech manufacturing and related industries continued to expand [2]