摩根大通：全球主题研究 -关键交易

Investment Rating - The report does not explicitly state an investment rating for the industry or specific companies [7][12]. Core Insights - The Energy Sensitive basket has seen a significant decline, moving from outperforming to the worst-performing category due to a sharp decline in energy prices [7]. - Tariff-sensitive baskets, particularly those related to the US and China, have underperformed the market amid ongoing tariff escalations. A potential trade deal could lead to significant mean reversion in these themes [12]. - Policy-sensitive themes have experienced notable movements since the election, with specific mention of the DOGE/Fiscal Tightening basket as a favorable risk/reward opportunity [12]. - The Europe Defense sector has outperformed the S&P 500 by 46% since the US election, while US Aerospace & Defense has underperformed by 37%, indicating a potential investment opportunity in the latter [12]. - The Momentum Factor is currently favoring defensives and low volatility stocks, suggesting a pair trade opportunity between Long AI/Data Center and Short Low Vol Aristocrats [12]. Summary by Sections Tariff Sensitive Baskets - The report identifies various tariff-sensitive baskets, including those for the US, China, Europe, and Mexico, highlighting their vulnerability to tariff-related policy actions [17][21][26][43]. - A list of companies with high overseas revenue exposure (>30%) is provided, indicating their sensitivity to US tariffs [21][31]. Sector Performance - The report discusses the performance of different sectors, noting that the US Defense sector and the EU Defense sector have distinct performance metrics, with the EU sector benefiting from recent policy headlines [12][81][86]. - The report also highlights the potential beneficiaries of the Green/EV/Climate provisions of the Inflation Reduction Act, focusing on companies in the Industrials, Technology, and Utilities sectors [67]. Consumer Exposure - The report emphasizes the impact of the cost-of-living crisis on low-end consumers, identifying stocks that are at risk of underperforming due to this demographic's financial pressures [80]. Government and Policy Impacts - The report outlines the potential effects of government spending cuts and efficiency improvements on specific stocks, particularly in the defense and industrial sectors [62][71].