农产品早报-20250506

Group 1: Report Investment Rating - No information provided Group 2: Core Views - Corn prices are expected to fluctuate strongly before May Day due to tight supply in the short - term, and have a strong upward expectation in the long - term. Starch prices will remain high in the short - term and have limited price adjustment space in the long - term, and it's advisable to short the far - month prices [3] - International sugar prices are under pressure due to Brazil's new crushing season, and domestic sugar fundamentals are stronger than foreign ones. In the long - term, raw sugar will weaken with Brazil's increased supply [6] - Cotton supply and demand is relatively loose this year due to high production in Xinjiang and poor demand. Attention should be paid to domestic favorable policies, trade war changes and macro risks [7] - Egg prices rose due to a short - term supply - demand mismatch, but now the downstream stocking is basically completed. The progress of capacity reduction has slowed down, and attention should be paid to the impact of spot price weakness on culling sentiment [9] - Apple trading in the producing areas has improved slightly, the overall stocking atmosphere is okay, and the flowering situation in the producing areas is good. Weather conditions should be continuously monitored [11] - Pig prices are oscillating downward after the slowdown of second - fattening. The supply pressure is difficult to digest, and the overall idea is to short on rallies [11] Group 3: Summary by Commodity Corn/Starch - Price Data: From April 24 to April 30, the price in Changchun increased by 30, the price in Weifang increased by 20, the basis decreased by 22, and the import profit increased by 48. For starch, the basis increased by 3 and the processing profit increased by 2 [2] - Market Analysis: Corn supply is currently tight, and prices are expected to fluctuate strongly in the short - term and have an upward trend in the long - term. Starch is in a loss situation, with weak procurement willingness, high short - term prices and limited long - term price adjustment space [3] Sugar - Price Data: From April 24 to April 30, the basis in Liuzhou increased by 49, the import profit from Thailand increased by 47, the import profit from Brazil increased by 47, and the number of warehouse receipts increased by 97 [6] - Market Analysis: Internationally, Brazil's new crushing season puts pressure on raw sugar. Domestically, the fundamentals are stronger, and imports are expected to increase after July. In the long - term, raw sugar will weaken with Brazil's increased supply [6] Cotton/Cotton Yarn - Price Data: From April 24 to April 30, the price of 3128 cotton decreased by 110, the import profit increased by 70, and the 32S spinning profit increased by 115 [7] - Market Analysis: Cotton production in Xinjiang has reached a ten - year high, demand is poor, and the supply - demand is relatively loose this year. Attention should be paid to domestic policies, trade war and macro risks [7] Eggs - Price Data: From April 24 to April 30, the basis increased by 56, and the price of live pigs decreased by 0.19 [9] - Market Analysis: Egg prices rose due to a short - term supply - demand mismatch, but now the downstream stocking is basically completed. The progress of capacity reduction has slowed down, and attention should be paid to the impact of spot price weakness on culling sentiment [9] Apples - Price Data: From April 24 to April 30, the 1 - month basis increased by 69, the 5 - month basis decreased by 134, and the 10 - month basis increased by 32 [11] - Market Analysis: Apple trading in the producing areas has improved slightly, the overall stocking atmosphere is okay, and the flowering situation in the producing areas is good. Weather conditions should be continuously monitored [11] Pigs - Price Data: From April 24 to April 30, the price in Henan Kaifeng increased by 0.10, the price in Hubei Xiangyang increased by 0.05, the price in Anhui Hefei increased by 0.05, the price in Jiangsu Nantong increased by 0.10, and the basis increased by 120 [11] - Market Analysis: Pig prices are oscillating downward after the slowdown of second - fattening. The supply pressure is difficult to digest, and the overall idea is to short on rallies [11]