瑞达期货聚丙烯产业日报-20250506

Group 1: Report Investment Rating - No information provided Group 2: Core Viewpoints - PP2509 is expected to oscillate weakly in the short term. The pre - holiday PP weekly output decreased by 1.92% to 73.41 million tons, and the capacity utilization rate decreased by 2.55% to 75.52%. The downstream product exports are affected by tariffs, and the downstream operating rate decreased by 0.37% to 49.69%. The pre - holiday PP inventory decreased by 5.99% to 77.05 million tons, which is neutral compared to the same period in the past three years. In May, PP is still in the intensive maintenance stage, and the supply pressure may ease. The propane inventory of domestic PDH enterprises is expected to last until the middle to the end of the month. The US tariff policy shows no sign of alleviation, and the OPEC+ decision to accelerate production increase led to a significant decline in international oil prices during the holiday [2] Group 3: Summary by Directory Futures Market - The closing price of the main futures contract for polypropylene is 6,995 yuan/ton, down 46 yuan; the 1 - month contract is 6,899 yuan/ton, down 84 yuan; the 5 - month contract is 7,105 yuan/ton, down 21 yuan; the 9 - month contract is 6,995 yuan/ton, down 46 yuan. The trading volume is 273,032 lots, an increase of 35,023 lots, and the open interest is 444,194 lots, an increase of 35,248 lots. The net long position of the top 20 holders is - 21,543 lots, a decrease of 6,406 lots, and the warehouse receipt quantity is 4,369 lots, a decrease of 64 lots. The CFR Southeast Asia intermediate price of PP (fiber/injection molding) is 924 US dollars/ton, and the CFR Far East intermediate price of PP (homopolymer injection molding) is 849 US dollars/ton [2] Spot Market - The duty - paid self - pick - up price of PP (drawn grade) in Zhejiang is 7,285 yuan/ton, down 5 yuan [2] Upstream Situation - The CFR China price of propylene is 811 US dollars/ton, unchanged; the CFR price of propane in the Far East is 564 US dollars/ton, unchanged. The FOB price of naphtha in Singapore is 59.42 US dollars/barrel, down 1.64 US dollars, and the CFR price of naphtha in Japan is 546.25 US dollars/ton, down 12 US dollars [2] Industry Situation - The operating rate of polypropylene in petrochemical enterprises is 75.52%, a decrease of 2.55 percentage points [2] Downstream Situation - The average operating rate of polypropylene is 49.69%, a decrease of 0.37 percentage points. The operating rates of different downstream sectors have different changes, such as the operating rate of plastic weaving is 45%, down 0.3 percentage points; the operating rate of injection molding is 56.2%, up 0.34 percentage points; etc. [2] Option Market - The 20 - day historical volatility of polypropylene is 12.19%, an increase of 0.03 percentage points; the 40 - day historical volatility is 9.59%, an increase of 0.05 percentage points. The implied volatility of at - the - money put options is 11.67%, an increase of 0.5 percentage points, and the implied volatility of at - the - money call options is 11.69%, an increase of 0.52 percentage points [2] Industry News - From April 18th to 24th, the domestic polypropylene output was 73.41 million tons, a decrease of 1.92% compared to the previous week, and the capacity utilization rate decreased by 2.55% to 75.52%. From April 25th to 30th, the average operating rate of the domestic polypropylene downstream industry decreased by 0.37 percentage points to 49.69%. As of April 30th, the total commercial inventory of polypropylene in China was 77.05 million tons, a decrease of 5.99% from the previous period [2]