瑞达期货PVC产业日报-20250506

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core View The PVC fundamentals are weak, and the futures price is at a relatively low level. It is expected that the V2509 contract will fluctuate at a low level. The supply pressure is expected to increase due to the reduced marginal maintenance losses in May and the possible commissioning of Wanhua's 500,000 - ton facility. The export of Chinese PVC raw materials may be affected by factors such as the BIS certification and anti - dumping tax uncertainties in the Indian market, and the US tariff restrictions on Vietnamese PVC floor exports. [3] 3. Summary by Directory Futures Market - The closing price of PVC futures (V2509) is 4,854 yuan/ton, down 88 yuan; the trading volume is 542,507 lots, down 43,957 lots; the open interest is 969,200 lots, up 74,454 lots. The net long position of the top 20 futures holders is - 88,094 lots, down 25,878 lots. [3] 现货市场 - In the East China market, the price of ethylene - based PVC is 5,075 yuan/ton (unchanged), and the price of calcium carbide - based PVC is 4,781.54 yuan/ton, down 24.62 yuan. In the South China market, the price of ethylene - based PVC is 5,050 yuan/ton, up 10 yuan, and the price of calcium carbide - based PVC is 4,848.75 yuan/ton, up 12.5 yuan. The CIF price of PVC in China is 700 US dollars/ton (unchanged), and the CIF price in Southeast Asia is 670 US dollars/ton (unchanged). The FOB price in Northwest Europe is 785 US dollars/ton (unchanged). The basis is - 154 yuan/ton, up 48 yuan. [3] Upstream Situation - The mainstream average price of calcium carbide in Central China is 2,850 yuan/ton (unchanged), in North China it is 2,823.33 yuan/ton, up 16.67 yuan, and in Northwest China it is 2,618 yuan/ton, up 30 yuan. The mainstream price of liquid chlorine in Inner Mongolia is 50.5 yuan/ton (unchanged). The CFR mid - price of VCM in the Far East is 534 US dollars/ton, up 5 US dollars, and in Southeast Asia it is 551 US dollars/ton, up 5 US dollars. The CFR mid - price of EDC in the Far East is 196 US dollars/ton, down 5 US dollars, and in Southeast Asia it is 181 US dollars/ton, down 30 US dollars. [3] Industry Situation - The weekly operating rate of PVC is 79.33%, up 0.7 percentage points; the operating rate of calcium carbide - based PVC is 79%, up 0.36 percentage points; the operating rate of ethylene - based PVC is 80.19%, up 1.58 percentage points. The total social inventory of PVC is 40.36 tons, down 1.7 tons; the inventory in East China is 36.18 tons, down 1.94 tons; the inventory in South China is 4.18 tons, up 0.24 tons. [3] Downstream Situation - The national real - estate climate index is 93.96, up 0.16. The cumulative value of new housing construction area is 12,996.46 million square meters, up 6,382.46 million square meters; the cumulative value of real - estate construction area is 613,705.44 million square meters, up 7,733.44 million square meters; the cumulative value of real - estate development investment is 110.0202 billion yuan, up 48.9131 billion yuan. [3] Option Market - The 20 - day historical volatility of PVC is 16.53%, up 0.89 percentage points; the 40 - day historical volatility is 14.71%, up 0.25 percentage points. The implied volatility of at - the - money put options is 18.18%, up 0.14 percentage points; the implied volatility of at - the - money call options is 18.17%, up 0.13 percentage points. [3] Industry News - On May 6, the spot exchange price of PVCSG5 in Changzhou warehouses decreased by 10 - 70 yuan/ton compared with before the holiday, ranging from 4,630 to 4,780 yuan/ton. - From April 26 to May 2, China's PVC capacity utilization rate was 79.33%, up 0.70% from the previous period. - As of April 24, the social inventory of PVC (41 samples from Longzhong) decreased by 5.15% to 687,700 tons. [3] Viewpoint Summary - The pipe production operating rate increased by 1.05 percentage points to 48.34%, and the profile production operating rate decreased by 6.5 percentage points to 34.15%. The pre - holiday PVC social inventory decreased by 5.15% to 687,700 tons, maintaining a destocking trend with low inventory pressure. In May, the maintenance loss of PVC will decrease marginally, and Wanhua's 500,000 - ton facility may be put into production, so the supply pressure is expected to increase. The Indian market is still affected by the uncertainties of BIS certification and anti - dumping tax; the export of Vietnamese PVC floors is restricted by US tariffs, which may affect China's PVC raw material exports. There is no sign of relief in the US tariff policy during the May Day holiday. [3]