Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints - Recently, the domestic raw material supply is abundant, prices are weakening, and cost support is insufficient. The overall inventory of butadiene rubber production enterprises has decreased slightly. Under the expectation of increased supply, the trading focus of the spot market is under pressure. The inventory of production enterprises has decreased, while that of sample trading enterprises has increased, and the inventory level is at a medium level within the year. It is expected that the inventory of butadiene rubber enterprises will increase in the short term. [2] - Last week, the capacity utilization rate of domestic tire enterprises decreased significantly on a week - on - week basis. This is mainly because some enterprises gradually entered the maintenance or production - reduction operation stage due to the approaching holiday, which dragged down the capacity utilization rate. The capacity utilization rate is expected to gradually recover after the holiday. The short - term trading range for the BR2506 contract is recommended to be between 11,000 - 11,800 yuan/ton. [2] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Futures Market - The closing price of the main contract for synthetic rubber is 11,315 yuan/ton, with a week - on - week increase of 235 yuan/ton; the position volume of the main contract is 25,743, with a week - on - week decrease of 241. The 6 - 7 spread of synthetic rubber is - 75 yuan/ton, with a week - on - week increase of 85 yuan/ton. The total number of warehouse receipts for butadiene rubber in warehouses is 7,280 tons, with no change. [2] Spot Market - The mainstream price of butadiene rubber (BR9000, Qilu Petrochemical) in Shandong is 11,600 yuan/ton, with a week - on - week decrease of 50 yuan/ton; the mainstream price of butadiene rubber (BR9000, Daqing Petrochemical) in Shandong is 11,550 yuan/ton, with a week - on - week decrease of 50 yuan/ton; the mainstream price of butadiene rubber (BR9000, Daqing Petrochemical) in Shanghai is 11,600 yuan/ton, with no change; the mainstream price of butadiene rubber (BR9000, Maoming Petrochemical) in Guangdong is 11,650 yuan/ton, with a week - on - week decrease of 50 yuan/ton. The basis of synthetic rubber is 285 yuan/ton, with a week - on - week decrease of 285 yuan/ton. [2] Upstream Situation - Brent crude oil is at $60.23 per barrel, with a week - on - week decrease of $1.06; WTI crude oil is at $57.13 per barrel, with a week - on - week decrease of $1.16. The price of Northeast Asian ethylene is $790 per ton, with no change; the price of naphtha CFR Japan is $546.25 per ton, with a week - on - week decrease of $12. The intermediate price of butadiene CFR China is $1,000 per ton, with no change; the mainstream price of butadiene in the Shandong market is 9,200 yuan/ton, with no change. [2] - The weekly production capacity of butadiene is 147,800 tons, with a week - on - week increase of 8,500 tons; the capacity utilization rate of butadiene is 68.86%, with a week - on - week decrease of 1.89 percentage points. The port inventory of butadiene is 36,500 tons, with a week - on - week increase of 1,700 tons; the operating rate of Shandong local refineries' atmospheric and vacuum distillation units is 48.5%, with a week - on - week increase of 1.39 percentage points. [2] - The monthly output of butadiene rubber is 128,300 tons, with a month - on - month increase of 16,500 tons; the weekly capacity utilization rate of butadiene rubber is 67.17%, with a week - on - week increase of 4.41 percentage points. The weekly production profit of butadiene rubber is 136 yuan/ton, with a week - on - week increase of 515 yuan/ton. The social inventory of butadiene rubber is 32,300 tons, with a week - on - week increase of 200 tons; the manufacturer's inventory of butadiene rubber is 26,850 tons, with a week - on - week decrease of 1,790 tons; the trader's inventory of butadiene rubber is 5,100 tons, with a week - on - week increase of 1,490 tons. [2] Downstream Situation - The operating rate of domestic semi - steel tires is 72.43%, with a week - on - week decrease of 5.68 percentage points; the operating rate of domestic all - steel tires is 56.24%, with a week - on - week decrease of 6.22 percentage points. The monthly output of all - steel tires is 3.09 million pieces; the monthly output of semi - steel tires is 59.66 million pieces. [2] - The inventory days of all - steel tires in Shandong are 43.08 days, with a week - on - week increase of 0.35 days; the inventory days of semi - steel tires in Shandong are 45.91 days, with a week - on - week increase of 0.31 days. [2] Industry News - As of April 30, according to Longzhong Information statistics, the inventory of high - cis butadiene rubber sample enterprises in China was 32,000 tons, a decrease of 300 tons compared with the previous period (April 23, 2025), a week - on - week decrease of 0.93%. During this period, approaching the Labor Day holiday, some downstream enterprises made appropriate stockpiling of raw materials. The slowdown in the continuous increase of the raw material butadiene side alleviated the market's bearish sentiment. However, under the influence of the expected increase in supply, the trading focus of the现货 market was under pressure. The inventory of sample production enterprises decreased, while that of sample trading enterprises increased. [2] - As of April 30, according to Longzhong Information statistics, the capacity utilization rate of Chinese semi - steel tire sample enterprises was 66.69%, a week - on - week decrease of 5.67 percentage points and a year - on - year decrease of 12.29 percentage points; the capacity utilization rate of Chinese all - steel tire sample enterprises was 59.54%, a week - on - week decrease of 6.25 percentage points and a year - on - year increase of 11.74 percentage points. [2]
合成橡胶产业日报-20250506
Rui Da Qi Huo·2025-05-06 12:34