Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided Core Viewpoints - For methanol, due to low shipments from Iran and insufficient time for the 05 contract, inventory is expected to decline to seasonal lows by the end of April. There is a risk of continued low shipments from Iran. Assuming normal imports and the shutdown of Shenghong in May, inventory will accumulate, but the low inventory at the end of April will still influence trading. An unexpected supply gap in the 05 contract could keep inventory low, providing a safety margin for long positions [2] - For polyethylene, the inventory of the two major oil companies is neutral year - on - year. Upstream and coal - chemical industries have accumulated inventory during holidays. Downstream inventory of raw materials and finished products is neutral. Overall inventory is neutral. The 05 basis is +300 in North and East China. External markets in Europe, America, and Southeast Asia are stable. Import profit is around -400 with no further increase for now. Non - standard HD injection prices are stable, other spreads are volatile, and LD is weakening. Domestic linear production has increased month - on - month in February. Attention should be paid to US quotes and the commissioning of new plants in 2025 [6] - For polypropylene, upstream and mid - stream inventories have accumulated during holidays. In terms of valuation, the basis is +10, non - standard spreads are neutral, and import profit is around -500. There are no reports of large - scale export transactions. Non - standard spreads are neutral. European and American markets are stable. PDH profit is around -600, propylene prices are volatile, and powder production is stable. Drawing production is neutral. With few known future maintenance plans, supply is expected to increase slightly month - on - month. Downstream orders are average, and raw material inventory is neutral while finished product inventory is slightly high. Under the background of over - capacity, the 05 contract is expected to face pressure, which can be relieved by increased exports or monthly maintenance of 2 million - ton PDH plants [6] - For PVC, the basis has strengthened to 05 - 120, and the factory - pick - up basis is -280. Downstream开工 is seasonal, and there is a strong willingness to hold goods at low prices. Mid - and upstream inventories are continuously decreasing. With concentrated spring maintenance, the开工 rate is expected to reach 75% temporarily. In the second quarter, attention should be paid to the scale of spring maintenance after profit compression. Export orders are acceptable. In April, attention should be paid to the Politburo meeting. Coal prices are stable, the cost of semi - coke is weak, and calcium carbide may not expand profits with PVC maintenance. The counter - offer for caustic soda exports is FOB400. Attention should be paid to whether subsequent export orders can support high - priced caustic soda. The comprehensive profit of PVC is -300. Currently, static inventory is at a high level, downstream performance is average, and the macro - environment is neutral. Attention should be paid to exports, coal prices, commercial housing sales, terminal orders, and开工 [10] Summary by Product Methanol - From April 24 to April 30, the price of thermal coal futures remained at 801. The price of Jiangsu spot increased by 3 to 2453, and the price of South China spot decreased by 10 to 2415. The price of Lunan converted to the futures price decreased by 25 to 2650. The import profit decreased by 3 to 258, and the main contract basis increased by 30 to 170. The profit of the MTO on the futures盘面 increased by 30 to -812 [2] Polyethylene - From April 24 to April 30, the price of Northeast Asian ethylene remained at 790. The price of North China LL remained unchanged at 7320, and the price of East China LL decreased by 35 to 7490. The price of East China LD decreased by 25 to 9125, and the price of East China HD increased by 100 to 7750. The import profit remained at -33, and the main futures price decreased by 39 to 7083. The basis remained at 210, and the inventory of the two major oil companies increased by 1 to 67 [6] Polypropylene - From April 24 to April 30, the price of Shandong propylene decreased by 30 to 6420, and the price of Northeast Asian propylene remained at 780. The price of East China PP decreased by 25 to 7155, and the price of North China PP increased by 8 to 7253. The price of Shandong powder decreased by 30 to 7020. The export profit remained at 18, and the main futures price decreased by 51 to 7041. The basis remained at 80, and the inventory of the two major oil companies increased by 1 to 67. The number of warehouse receipts decreased by 163 to 4433 [6] PVC - From April 24 to April 30, the price of Northwest calcium carbide remained at 2500, and the price of Shandong caustic soda decreased by 5 to 792. The price of calcium carbide - based PVC in East China decreased by 20 to 4800. The export profit remained at 565, and the comprehensive profit in the Northwest remained at 356, while the comprehensive profit in North China remained at -244. The basis (high - end delivery product) remained at -180 [9][10]
甲醇聚烯烃早报-20250506
Yong An Qi Huo·2025-05-06 13:41