建信期货工业硅日报-20250507

Group 1: Report Information - Report date: May 07, 2025 [2] - Research team: Energy and Chemical Research Team [3] - Researchers: Li Jie, CFA (Crude Oil and Fuel Oil); Ren Junchi (PTA/MEG); Peng Haozhou (Industrial Silicon/Polycrystalline Silicon); Peng Jinglin (Polyolefins); Liu Youran (Pulp) [3] Group 2: Market Performance and Outlook Market Performance - Industrial silicon futures: The main contract Si2506 closed at 8,325 yuan/ton, down 2.57%. Trading volume was 269,472 lots, and open interest was 179,536 lots, a net increase of 13,001 lots [4] - Spot prices: Sichuan 553 grade was 9,100 yuan/ton, Yunnan 553 grade was 9,150 yuan/ton; Sichuan 421 was 10,350 yuan/ton, Yunnan 421 was 9,600 yuan/ton, Inner Mongolia 421 was 9,600 yuan/ton, and Xinjiang 421 was 9,800 yuan/ton [4] Outlook - Spot prices are still falling rapidly, and there are no significant signs of improvement in the fundamentals. Weekly production is 73,100 tons, and there is no expectation of production cuts in May. Demand from polysilicon is 108,000 tons, and silicone enterprises are cutting production to support prices. Other demand is stable, and the oversupply situation persists. Inventories are increasing. The loss has not had a significant negative impact on the supply side, and the fundamental drivers are weak. The market is expected to continue to fluctuate weakly, and attention should be paid to the potential pressure of increased production during the wet season [4] Group 3: Market News - On May 06, the number of futures warehouse receipts on the Guangzhou Futures Exchange was 68,930 lots, a net decrease of 306 lots from the previous trading day [5] - The Caixin China Manufacturing Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) in April was 50.4, down 0.8 percentage points from the previous month, the lowest in three months; the Caixin China Services PMI also dropped 1.2 percentage points to 50.7, the lowest since Q4 2024 [5]