Group 1: Report Information - Report Name: Sugar Daily Report [1] - Date: May 7, 2025 [2] - Researcher: Wang Haifeng, Lin Zhenlei, Yu Lanlan, Hong Chenliang, Liu Youran [3] Group 2: Investment Rating - No investment rating information provided Group 3: Core View - New season sugar in Brazil is gradually coming to the market, putting pressure on the market. The 5 - month contract delivery volume is expected to reach about 2 million tons, which may indicate weak spot sales. Uncertain factors mainly lie in the India - Pakistan conflict [7]. - Zhengzhou sugar is expected to face import pressure in the third quarter due to the opening of the profit window for out - of - quota imports. Zhengzhou sugar is regarded as bearish [8]. Group 4: Market Review and Operation Suggestions Futures Market - SR505 closed at 6073 yuan/ton, down 52 yuan or 0.85%, with a position of 13,644 contracts, a decrease of 2,518 contracts. SR509 closed at 5890 yuan/ton, up 1 yuan or 0.02%, with a position of 305,344 contracts, a decrease of 858 contracts. US sugar 05 closed at 17.38 cents/pound, down 0.24 cents or 1.36%, with a position of 30,343 contracts, a decrease of 14,074 contracts. US sugar 07 closed at 17.24 cents/pound, down 0.30 cents or 1.71%, with a position of 348,504 contracts, an increase of 2,994 contracts [7]. Market Analysis - New York raw sugar futures weakened on Friday, with the main July contract down 1.71% to 17.24 cents/pound. London ICE white sugar futures were closed for the UK public holiday. During the May Day holiday, foreign raw sugar maintained a weakening trend. The new season sugar in Brazil is gradually coming to the market, and the 5 - month contract delivery volume is expected to reach about 2 million tons, which may indicate weak spot sales. Uncertain factors mainly lie in the India - Pakistan conflict [7]. - Zhengzhou sugar's main contract showed a weak shock. The 09 contract closed at 5890 yuan/ton, up 1 yuan or 0.02%, with a reduction of 858 contracts. The spot prices in domestic production areas declined. After the rainfall in Guangxi, the market lost the impetus for speculation. The weak foreign raw sugar also dragged down Zhengzhou sugar, and the profit window for out - of - quota imports in China opened, so the import pressure in the third quarter is expected to be large. Zhengzhou sugar is regarded as bearish [8]. Group 5: Industry News - As of April 30, India had produced 25.69 million tons of sugar, and about 19 sugar mills were still in operation. About 10 sugar mills in Uttar Pradesh were still operating, and 8 of them were in western Uttar Pradesh. These sugar mills are expected to continue operating for 7 - 10 days. The increase in sugarcane production has improved the sugarcane supply in Uttar Pradesh, allowing some sugar mills to continue operating. In addition, the increase in sugar recovery rate in the second half of the season has also increased sugar production [9]. - From the Brazilian foreign trade secretariat's export data on April 28, Brazil exported 1,281,866.53 tons of sugar in the first four weeks of April, with an average daily export volume of 75,403.91 tons, a 12% decrease compared to the average daily export volume of 85,875.17 tons in the whole of April last year. The total export volume in April last year was 1,889,253.72 tons [9]. - Ukraine will reduce its sugar beet planting area by 17% this year, resulting in a significant decline in sugar production and a sharp drop in exports, especially to the EU. It is expected that Ukraine's sugar production will drop to 1.5 million tons this year, down from 1.8 million tons last year, and the export volume will be reduced to 180,511 tons, compared with 746,000 tons in 2024 [9]. - According to a survey of 23 analysts by S&P Global Commodity Insights, the sugar production in the central - southern main producing area of Brazil in the first half of April is expected to be 694,000 tons, a 3.8% decrease compared to the same period last year [9]. - According to the latest forecast of the US Department of Agriculture, Brazil's sugarcane production in the 2025/26 season may reach 671 million tons, of which 618 million tons will come from the central - southern region accounting for 91% of the country's production, and 53 million tons will come from the northeast and north regions. Brazil will continue to be the world's largest sugarcane and sugar producer in the next season [9][10]. Group 6: Data Overview - The report provides multiple data charts, including spot price trends, 2509 contract basis, SR5 - 9 spread, Brazilian raw sugar import profit, Zhengzhou Commodity Exchange warehouse receipts, Brazilian real exchange rate, and the trading and holding positions of the top 20 seats in the main contract of Zhengzhou sugar [11][13][16][20].
白糖日报-20250507
Jian Xin Qi Huo·2025-05-07 00:54