建信期货豆粕日报-20250507

Group 1: General Information - Reported industry: Soybean meal [1] - Report date: May 7, 2025 [2] - Research team: Agricultural products research team, including Yu Lanlan, Lin Zhenlei, Wang Haifeng, Hong Chenliang, and Liu Youran [4] Group 2: Market Review and Operation Suggestions Market Review - Contract data: - For the soybean meal 2505 contract, the previous settlement price was 2808, opening at 2794, with a high of 2794, a low of 2734, and closing at 2748, down 60 or -2.14%. The trading volume was 3274, and the open interest was 23163, a decrease of 2411 [6]. - The soybean meal 2507 contract had a previous settlement of 2795, opened at 2760, reached a high of 2781, a low of 2748, and closed at 2765, down 30 or -1.07%. The trading volume was 94711, and the open interest was 550877, an increase of 6429 [6]. - The soybean meal 2509 contract had a previous settlement of 2945, opened at 2904, with a high of 2932, a low of 2896, and closed at 2915, down 30 or -1.02%. The trading volume was 821492, and the open interest was 2473347, an increase of 19400 [6]. - External market: During the holidays, the CBOT soybean 07 contract fluctuated, with the main price at 1045 cents. There was limited short - term external market drive. Many countries were in trade negotiations with the US, and there were reports that Pakistan, Japan, etc., were interested in purchasing more US agricultural products. The CBOT soybean had strong support at the bottom. Meanwhile, there was a tendency for Sino - US negotiations, and the situation was more relaxed [6]. - New - season US soybeans: The planting area decreased significantly year - on - year, but the recent sowing speed was fast, which was beneficial for potential yield per unit. This put some pressure on the external market, and the external market was expected to have a narrow - range fluctuation [6]. - Domestic soybean meal: The sharp decline in the spot price before the holiday continued, and the phased supply - demand imbalance had basically ended. Some regional quotes were just over 3000 yuan. After May, a large amount of soybeans would arrive at ports and complete customs clearance, and the supply increase was reflected in the futures market in advance. The subsequent contracts were at a large discount to the spot price [6]. Operation Suggestions - In the short term, affected by the continuous decline of the spot price, the futures market was weak, and the expectation of negotiations made it difficult for bulls to take action. However, Sino - US negotiations were expected to be repeated, and the decrease in the US soybean planting area was a reality. From a rhythm perspective, the futures market might be weak in the short term and strong in the medium - to - long term, especially the valuation of the fourth - quarter contracts might increase, but it might be necessary to endure the greatest supply pressure in the second quarter [6]. Group 3: Industry News - USDA crop growth report: As of the week ending May 4, 2025, the US soybean planting rate was 30%, lower than the expected 31%, up from 18% the previous week, 24% in the same period last year, and the five - year average of 23%. The soybean emergence rate was 7%, compared with 8% last year and a five - year average of 5% [9]. - CONAB data: As of May 3, the 2024/25 Brazilian soybean harvest rate was 97.7%, up from 94.8% the previous week, 94.3% in the same period last year, and the five - year average of 96.3% [9]. - Argentine data: As of April 30, the 2024/25 Argentine soybean harvest rate was 25%, behind the 34% in the same period last year and up from 13% the previous week [9][10] Group 4: Data Overview - The report includes multiple data charts, such as the ex - factory price of soybean meal, the basis of the soybean meal 05 contract, the 1 - 5 spread of soybean meal, the 5 - 9 spread of soybean meal, the US dollar - RMB central parity rate, and the US dollar - Brazilian real exchange rate, with data sources from Wind and the Research and Development Department of Jianxin Futures [12][13][15]