贵金属日评-20250507

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No investment rating information is provided in the report. 2. Core View of the Report - Gold's safe - haven demand is greatly boosted due to Trump's new policies and global political and economic uncertainties. Gold's volatility has increased, but the medium - term upward trend is well - maintained. It is recommended that investors maintain a long - position mindset. Silver is relatively weak under industrial demand pressure. Traders with a short - position bias can consider the "long gold, short silver" arbitrage strategy [4][5]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs I. Precious Metals Market Conditions and Outlook - Intraday Market: The prospect of eased Sino - US trade tensions and the US - Ukraine mineral agreement initially pushed down the price of London gold to around $3200 per ounce. However, Trump's new tariff threats and resumption of arms sales to Ukraine, along with potential conflicts between India and Pakistan, strengthened the safe - haven demand. On May 6, London gold rebounded to around $3400 per ounce. The appreciation of the RMB against the US dollar made domestic gold and silver relatively weak. This week, attention should be paid to the Fed's interest - rate meeting and China's foreign trade and inflation data in April [4]. - Medium - term Market: In early April, Trump's tariff measures caused global market turmoil and depressed global financial assets including gold. But due to the damage to the US dollar's credit, triple safe - haven demands drove the London gold price to break through $3500 per ounce on April 22. Although the price corrected due to profit - taking and the government's soothing remarks, the medium - term upward trend remains good. The long - and medium - term factors driving up the gold price will continue to exist, though the short - term sharp rise and high price - earnings ratio also mean increased volatility [5]. II. Precious Metals Market - Related Charts The report presents multiple charts showing the trends of Shanghai and London gold and silver futures and spot prices, the basis between Shanghai futures index and Shanghai Gold T + D, gold and silver ETF holdings, gold - silver ratio, and the correlation between London gold and other assets. The specific trends can be observed from these charts [7][9][15]. III. Major Macroeconomic Events/Data - The US service PMI in April increased by 0.8 points to 51.6, and the inflation pressure caused by tariffs is rising. US service companies are worried about the impact of tariffs on prices and the sharp reduction in federal spending [16]. - The US Treasury Secretary believes that Trump's policies will promote long - term investment in the US economy, and the US financial market can withstand short - term turmoil. Trump plans to announce drug tariffs in the next two weeks [16]. - The IMF President called on China to shift from an export - oriented economic growth model and address four economic issues [16]. - India has started to increase the water storage capacity of two hydropower projects in Kashmir after suspending the water - sharing agreement with Pakistan, which may affect Pakistan's water supply [17].