2025年地方供地计划探析：规模压降、结构优化与市场效应

Investment Rating - The report indicates a cautious outlook on the Chinese real estate market, emphasizing a trend of reduced land supply and a shift towards quality over quantity in land transactions [6][11]. Core Insights - The Chinese real estate market is experiencing a structural adjustment, with a significant reduction in land supply and a decrease in local governments' reliance on land finance, marking a historic low [6][11]. - The land supply plan for residential land in 2025 is set to decrease by 20% year-on-year, with second-tier cities leading the decline at 31% [7][17]. - The report highlights a notable increase in land auction activity, with monthly premium rates surpassing 10% for the first time in three years, indicating a recovery in market confidence [6][37]. Summary by Sections Section 1: Land Transaction Trends - Land transaction volumes have decreased significantly, with the first quarter of 2025 seeing only 58% of the volume compared to residential sales, indicating a rapid inventory reduction [6][12]. - Local government reliance on land sales has dropped to 50%, further compressing the supply of residential land [6][12]. Section 2: Residential Land Supply Plans - The residential land supply plan for 2025 is expected to decrease by 20% year-on-year, with second-tier cities experiencing the largest reductions [7][17]. - Approximately 60% of cities have reduced their residential land supply plans, with major cities like Beijing and Shanghai seeing declines of over 30% [7][21]. Section 3: Pre-supply Land Scale - The overall pre-supply land area has decreased by 47% year-on-year, with first-tier cities showing resilience [8][32]. - Many third and fourth-tier cities are accelerating their pre-announcement schedules, enhancing market confidence through effective management of expectations [8][36]. Section 4: Core Cities Leading Recovery - Core cities are driving a recovery in the land market, with auction premiums exceeding 10% for the first time in 44 months, reflecting a positive market response [6][37]. - The report notes that the land market's rebound is a clear indication of the effectiveness of recent stabilization policies [6][39]. Section 5: Supply and Demand Relationship - The report emphasizes that the supply scale and rhythm are becoming more rational, facilitating a faster recovery of the real estate supply-demand relationship [6][43]. - The reduction in land supply and the shift towards quality land transactions are expected to enhance market confidence and stimulate demand [6][44].