Report Information - Report Title: Zinc Futures Daily Report [1] - Date: May 7, 2025 [2] - Researcher: Zhang Ping, Peng Jinglin, Yu Feifei [3][4] Industry Investment Rating - No investment rating information is provided in the report. Core View - After the May Day holiday, SHFE zinc opened higher and then fluctuated weakly. The main contract 2506 closed at 22,355 yuan/ton, down 150 yuan or 0.67%, with shrinking volume and increasing positions. The zinc concentrate TC continued to rise in May, and the high price of by - product sulfuric acid improved the refinery's comprehensive profit. However, after the holiday, acid plants faced inventory accumulation, and the by - product price might weaken at high levels. Some refinery overhauls were postponed to May, but considering new production from Henan refineries and continuous supply from imports, zinc ingot supply was relatively abundant. On the demand side, the effect of export rush converged, and terminal enterprises were worried about overseas export orders, leading to inventory accumulation of raw materials and costs. In the future, post - holiday restocking and low social inventory levels will support zinc prices, but the medium - term supply - demand surplus will increase the expectation of inventory accumulation, and the upside space for SHFE zinc is limited, with a rebound on the short side [7]. Summary by Directory 1. Market Review - Futures Market Quotes: - For SHFE zinc 2505, the opening price was 22,600 yuan/ton, the closing price was 22,765 yuan/ton, the highest was 22,810 yuan/ton, the lowest was 22,600 yuan/ton, the change was +5 yuan, the change rate was 0.02%, the open interest was 11,055, and the change in open interest was - 1,267. - For SHFE zinc 2506, the opening price was 22,390 yuan/ton, the closing price was 22,355 yuan/ton, the highest was 22,580 yuan/ton, the lowest was 22,300 yuan/ton, the change was - 150 yuan, the change rate was - 0.67%, the open interest was 111,715, and the change in open interest was +5,719. - For SHFE zinc 2507, the opening price was 22,150 yuan/ton, the closing price was 22,075 yuan/ton, the highest was 22,340 yuan/ton, the lowest was 22,045 yuan/ton, the change was - 195 yuan, the change rate was - 0.88%, the open interest was 64,671, and the change in open interest was +5,515 [7]. - Market Analysis: The better - than - expected US non - farm payrolls data led to a rebound in base metals. LME zinc first declined and then rose during the May Day holiday. After the holiday, SHFE zinc opened higher and then fluctuated weakly. The zinc concentrate TC continued to rise in May, with the domestic monthly TC rising by 50 to 3,500 yuan/metal ton and the imported monthly TC rising by 5 to 45 US dollars/dry ton. The upward repair speed of TC in the second quarter slowed down. The high price of by - product sulfuric acid improved the refinery's comprehensive profit, but after the holiday, acid plants faced inventory accumulation, and the by - product price might weaken at high levels. Some refinery overhauls were postponed to May, and if the overhauls were implemented, there would be concerns about supply reduction. However, considering new production from Henan refineries and continuous supply from imports, zinc ingot supply was relatively abundant. On the demand side, the effect of export rush converged, and terminal enterprises were worried about overseas export orders, leading to inventory accumulation of raw materials and costs [7]. 2. Industry News - Shanghai Market: On May 6, 2025, the mainstream transaction price of 0 zinc was concentrated between 22,780 - 22,975 yuan/ton, and that of Shuangyan was between 22,960 - 23,135 yuan/ton. The mainstream transaction price of 1 zinc was between 22,710 - 22,905 yuan/ton. In the morning, the market quoted a premium of 50 - 60 yuan/ton to the average price, and there were few quotes to the market. In the second trading session, the common domestic brands quoted a premium of 210 - 220 yuan/ton to the 2505 contract, Honglu - v quoted a premium of 220 yuan/ton to the 2505 contract, Huize quoted a premium of 600 yuan/ton to the 2506 contract, the high - end brand Shuangyan quoted a premium of 330 - 380 yuan/ton to the 2505 contract, and Hazinc quoted a premium of 100 - 130 yuan/ton to the 2505 contract [8]. - Ningbo Market: The mainstream brands of 0 zinc in the Ningbo market were traded at around 22,835 - 23,030 yuan/ton. The regular brands in Ningbo switched to quoting a premium of 460 yuan/ton to the 2506 contract, with a flat price to the Shanghai spot. In the first period, Yongchang quoted a premium of 450 yuan/ton to the 2506 contract, Qilin quoted a premium of 450 - 470 yuan/ton to the 2506 contract, and Huize quoted a premium of 500 yuan/ton to the 2506 contract [8]. - Guangdong Market: The mainstream transaction price of 0 zinc in Guangdong was between 22,935 - 23,065 yuan/ton. The mainstream brands quoted a premium of 500 yuan/ton to the 2506 contract and a premium of 50 yuan/ton to the Shanghai spot, and the price difference between Shanghai and Guangdong widened. Although there was a small amount of arrival in Guangdong during the holiday, the overall inventory was still at a low level, and the quoted spot premiums were relatively high [8][9]. - Tianjin Market: The mainstream transaction price of 0 zinc ingots in the Tianjin market was between 22,850 - 23,160 yuan/ton, and that of Zijin was between 22,900 - 23,180 yuan/ton. The transaction price of 1 zinc ingots was around 22,230 - 22,470 yuan/ton, and Huludao was quoted at 26,220 yuan/ton. The common 0 zinc quoted a premium of 500 - 580 yuan/ton to the 2506 contract, Zijin quoted a premium of 550 - 600 yuan/ton to the 2506 contract, and the Tianjin market quoted a premium of about 40 yuan/ton to the Shanghai market [9]. 3. Data Overview - The report provides figures such as the price trends of zinc in the two markets, SHFE monthly spreads, SMM's weekly inventory of zinc ingots in seven regions, and LME zinc inventory, but specific data analysis is not provided in the text [10][12]
锌期货日报-20250507
Jian Xin Qi Huo·2025-05-07 01:25