棉花早报-20250507

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The cotton market is currently in a weak consolidation phase. The "Golden March and Silver April" period for domestic cotton has passed, and the overall market is relatively quiet. The outcome of Sino-US negotiations remains uncertain. The main contract of Zhengzhou cotton, 09, is expected to fluctuate within the range of 12,600 - 12,900 [4]. - There are both positive and negative factors in the cotton market. Positive factors include the futures price approaching historical lows. Negative factors include a decrease in foreign trade orders, an increase in inventory, the imposition of tariffs by the US, a halt in exports to the US, and the introduction of a European bill restricting imports [6]. Summary According to the Table of Contents 1. Previous Day's Review No relevant content provided. 2. Daily Tips - Fundamentals: Sino-US have imposed large - scale tariffs on each other. In March, the textile industry prosperity index rebounded to 52.47% above the boom - bust line. According to USDA, consumption was lowered and inventory increased in April, which is slightly bearish. ICAC's April report predicted an increase in production compared to the previous month, with unchanged consumption and a slight increase in ending inventory, also slightly bearish. In March, China's textile and clothing exports increased by 12.4% year - on - year. In March, China imported 70,000 tons of cotton, a year - on - year decrease of 81.4%, and 130,000 tons of cotton yarn, a year - on - year decrease of 31%. The Ministry of Agriculture estimated the 2024/2025 production at 6.16 million tons, imports at 1.5 million tons, consumption at 7.6 million tons, and ending inventory at 8.31 million tons, which is bearish [4]. - Basis: The national average price of spot 3128b is 14,113, and the basis is 1368 (for the 09 contract), with the spot at a premium to the futures, which is bullish [4]. - Inventory: The Ministry of Agriculture's April estimate of China's ending inventory for the 2024/2025 period is 8.31 million tons, which is bearish [4]. - Market Trend: The 20 - day moving average is downward, and the K - line is below the 20 - day moving average, which is bearish [4]. - Main Position: The net short position has decreased, but the overall position is still bearish, indicating a bearish trend for the main force [4]. 3. Today's Focus No relevant content provided. 4. Fundamental Data - Global Cotton Supply - Demand Balance (USDA): In April 2024/2025, the total global cotton production was 2632.1 million tons, with a year - on - year increase of 7% and a monthly decrease of 1.5 million tons. Consumption was 2526.1 million tons, with a year - on - year increase of 1% and a monthly decrease of 11.4 million tons. Ending inventory was 1717 million tons, with a year - on - year increase of 7% and a monthly increase of 11.5 million tons [11][12]. - China's Cotton Supply - Demand Balance: In the 2024/2025 period (April forecast), production was 6.16 million tons, imports were 1.5 million tons, consumption was 7.6 million tons, and ending inventory was 8.31 million tons. The domestic average price of cotton 3128B was in the range of 15,000 - 17,000 yuan/ton, and the Cotlook A index was in the range of 75 - 100 cents/pound [19]. 5. Position Data No relevant content provided.