大越期货聚烯烃早报-20250507

Group 1: Report Overview - Report Title: Polyolefin Morning Report - Report Date: May 7, 2025 - Analyst: Jin Zebin from Dayue Futures Investment Consulting Department [2][3] Group 2: Industry Investment Rating - No industry investment rating is provided in the report. Group 3: Core Views - The overall fundamentals of LLDPE and PP are bearish, but there are some bullish factors such as strong basis and inventory reduction. The market is expected to be volatile today [4][6]. Group 4: LLDPE Analysis Fundamentals - In April, the official PMI was 49%, down 1.5 percentage points from March, and the Caixin PMI was 50.4%, down 0.8 percentage points from March, both at recent lows. The central bank's statement on "timely reserve requirement ratio cuts and interest rate cuts" has increased market expectations for loose liquidity, but it will take time to transmit to real demand. OPEC+ announced production increases starting in June, weakening the cost support for oil-based polyolefins. In the second quarter, new production capacity is expected to be put into operation, the peak season for agricultural films has ended, and overall demand has declined. Affected by tariffs, the export demand for products is expected to weaken. The current spot price of LLDPE delivery products is 7350 (-20) [4]. Basis - The basis of the LLDPE 2509 contract is 363, with a premium ratio of 5.2%, indicating a bullish signal [4]. Inventory - The comprehensive PE inventory is 46.7 tons (-11.2), showing a bullish sign [4]. Market - The 20-day moving average of the LLDPE main contract is downward, and the closing price is below the 20-day line, suggesting a bearish trend [4]. Main Position - The net short position of the LLDPE main contract is decreasing, which is bearish [4]. Expectation - The LLDPE main contract is expected to be volatile and weak. With the decline in PMI data, OPEC's production increase and the weakening of oil prices, and the off-season for agricultural film demand, the industrial chain inventory is moderately high. It is expected that PE will be volatile today [4]. Group 5: PP Analysis Fundamentals - Similar to LLDPE, the fundamentals of PP are also bearish. The current spot price of PP delivery products is 7300 (-50). The anti - countermeasures will increase the cost of imported propane, and downstream demand is mainly for rigid needs recently. Affected by tariffs, the export demand for products is expected to weaken [6]. Basis - The basis of the PP 2509 contract is 305, with a premium ratio of 4.4%, indicating a bullish signal [6]. Inventory - The comprehensive PP inventory is 56.4 tons (-4.0), showing a bullish sign [6]. Market - The 20-day moving average of the PP main contract is downward, and the closing price is below the 20-day line, suggesting a bearish trend [6]. Main Position - The net short position of the PP main contract is decreasing, which is bearish [6]. Expectation - The PP main contract is expected to be volatile and weak. With the decline in PMI data, OPEC's production increase and the weakening of oil prices, and the rigid demand, the industrial chain inventory is moderate. It is expected that PP will be volatile today [6]. Group 6: Supply and Demand Balance Sheets Polyethylene - From 2018 to 2024, the production capacity of polyethylene has been increasing, with a growth rate ranging from 5.1% to 19.0%. The import dependence has been decreasing, from 46.3% in 2018 to 31.1% in 2023. The apparent consumption and actual consumption have also shown an overall upward trend, with some fluctuations in the growth rate [13]. Polypropylene - From 2018 to 2024, the production capacity of polypropylene has been increasing, with a growth rate ranging from 8.4% to 19.0%. The import dependence has been decreasing, from 18.6% in 2018 to 8.4% in 2023. The apparent consumption and actual consumption have also shown an overall upward trend, with a relatively stable growth rate [15].