大越期货玻璃早报-20250507

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints - The glass market has a weak fundamental situation, with short - term expectations of mainly weak and oscillatory movements. Although the supply has declined to a relatively low level for the same period, due to the still - weak terminal demand in the real estate sector, the market is under pressure. However, influenced by the expectation of the seasonal peak season, the spot price has increased, and downstream inventory replenishment has led to a reduction in glass factory inventories. Overall, it is expected to be mainly oscillatory and slightly stronger at a low level [2][5]. 3. Summary by Directory Glass Futures Market - The closing price of the main glass futures contract is 1071 yuan/ton, showing a decline of 1.02% compared to the previous value. The spot price of Shahe Safety large - size glass is 1156 yuan/ton, down 0.69%. The main basis is 85 yuan/ton, up 3.66% [6]. Glass Spot Market - The market price of 5mm white glass large - size boards in Hebei Shahe, the spot benchmark location, is 1156 yuan/ton, a decrease of 8 yuan/ton from the previous day [11]. Fundamental Analysis - Cost Side - The profitability of the coal production line has recovered, the losses of the natural gas production line have narrowed, and the profit of the petroleum coke production line has turned negative [16]. Fundamental Analysis - Supply - The number of operating national float glass production lines is 225, with an operating rate of 75.85%. The production line operation number and daily melting capacity are at historical lows for the same period [19][21]. Fundamental Analysis - Demand - In February 2025, the apparent consumption of float glass was 431.43 tons. The terminal demand in the real estate sector is still weak, and the number of orders from glass deep - processing enterprises is at a historical low for the same period. The capital collection situation in the deep - processing industry is not optimistic, and traders and processors are cautious, mainly focusing on digesting raw material inventories [25][4]. Fundamental Analysis - Inventory - The inventory of national float glass enterprises is 64.989 million weight boxes, a decrease of 0.74% from the previous week, and the inventory is above the five - year average [42]. Fundamental Analysis - Supply - Demand Balance Sheet - From 2017 to 2024E, the production and consumption of float glass have shown different trends. For example, in 2024E, the production is expected to be 55.1 million tons, with a growth rate of 3.94%, and the consumption is 53.1 million tons, with a decline rate of 1.15% [43]. Influencing Factors Summary - Positive factors: The negative feedback of production profit is obvious, and glass production has continuously declined to a historical low [4]. - Negative factors: The terminal demand in the real estate sector is weak, the number of orders from glass deep - processing enterprises is at a historical low for the same period, and the capital collection situation in the deep - processing industry is not optimistic [4]. Main Logic and Risk Points - Main logic: With the glass supply declining to a relatively low level for the same period, influenced by the expectation of the seasonal peak season, the spot price has increased, and downstream inventory replenishment has led to a reduction in glass factory inventories. It is expected to be mainly oscillatory and slightly stronger at a low level [5]. - Risk points: Accelerated industry resumption of production and less - than - expected macro and real estate policies [5].