大越期货菜粕早报-20250507

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report Core Viewpoints - Rapeseed meal RM2509 is expected to fluctuate within the range of 2520 - 2580. The market is influenced by factors such as soybean meal trends, low rapeseed meal inventory, and the impact of China's tariff policies on Canadian rapeseed products. In the short - term, the price will return to range - bound trading [9][10]. Summary by Directory 1. Daily Prompt - Not provided in the report 2. Recent News - Domestic aquaculture is recovering from the off - season, with tight supply and rising demand in the spot market. - Canada's annual rapeseed production has slightly decreased, supporting the foreign futures market. China has imposed additional tariffs on Canadian rapeseed oil and oil residue cakes, and the anti - dumping investigation on Canadian rapeseed imports is still ongoing. - Global rapeseed production has slightly decreased this year, mainly due to reduced production in the EU and lower - than - expected production in Canada. - The Russia - Ukraine conflict continues. The decrease in Ukraine's rapeseed production and the increase in Russia's rapeseed production offset each other. There is still a possibility of an escalation in global geopolitical conflicts, which supports commodity prices [12]. 3. Bullish and Bearish Factors - Bullish factors: China's additional tariffs on Canadian rapeseed oil and oil residue cakes; low inventory pressure on rapeseed meal in oil mills. - Bearish factors: An increase in the arrival volume of imported rapeseed after March; uncertainties in China's anti - dumping investigation on Canadian rapeseed imports and the seasonal off - season for rapeseed meal demand. - Current main logic: The market focuses on domestic aquaculture demand and the expected tariff war on Canadian rapeseed [13]. 4. Fundamental Data - Supply - demand balance: The report provides the supply - demand balance sheets of domestic rapeseed and rapeseed meal from 2014 - 2023, including data on harvest area, inventory, production, consumption, etc. - Price and trading volume: The trading volume and average price data of soybean meal and rapeseed meal from April 22 to May 6 are presented, as well as the price data of rapeseed meal futures and spot from April 22 to April 30. - Warehouse receipts: The statistics of rapeseed meal warehouse receipts from April 21 to May 6 show an overall upward trend. - Import situation: The arrival volume of imported rapeseed in April was lower than expected, and the import cost fluctuated upwards. - Inventory and processing: The rapeseed inventory of oil mills decreased slightly, and the rapeseed meal inventory dropped to a low level. The rapeseed crushing volume of oil mills rebounded from a low level [14][15][16][24][25][26][28][30]. 5. Position Data - Not provided in the report 6. Rapeseed Meal Views and Strategies - Fundamentals: Rapeseed meal closed up in a fluctuating manner, driven by soybean meal trends and technical consolidation. The low - level operation of oil mills and low rapeseed meal inventory support the market. The short - term demand for rapeseed meal spot is gradually recovering. Although the arrival volume of imported rapeseed has increased, the short - term inventory of oil mills is not under pressure, and the market has returned to a fluctuating pattern. China's additional tariffs on Canadian oil residue cakes are short - term bullish for rapeseed meal, but the bullish effect may be limited as no additional tariffs are imposed on rapeseed imports. - Basis: The spot price is 2480, and the basis is - 68, indicating a discount to the futures price. - Inventory: Rapeseed meal inventory is 1.45 million tons, up 49.48% week - on - week from 0.97 million tons last week and down 44.23% year - on - year from 2.6 million tons in the same period last year. - Market trend: The price is below the 20 - day moving average and moving downwards. - Main positions: The main long positions decreased, but capital flowed in. - Expectation: In the short - term, rapeseed meal prices rose and then fell due to the low inventory of imported rapeseed and China's additional tariffs on Canadian oil residue cakes. Driven by soybean meal, the rapeseed meal price will return to range - bound trading [10].