大越期货原油早报-20250507

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core View of the Report - Overnight crude oil rebounded strongly. Kazakhstan showed support for the compensatory production cut agreement, reducing the expectation of further production increases by OPEC+. High - level contacts between China and the US also indicated a potential easing of trade relations, boosting optimistic expectations for demand recovery. The API crude oil inventory decreased more than expected, providing support for oil prices. With the Middle East situation fluctuating, the oil price has a strong trend of stabilizing and rising. Short - term trading is expected to be in the range of 462 - 472, and long - term investors can try to go long at low prices [3]. 3. Summary According to the Table of Contents 3.1 Daily Prompt - For crude oil 2506, the fundamentals are neutral as China - US high - level talks are upcoming and US shale oil production is expected to decline while Kazakhstan may comply with OPEC+ cuts. The basis is neutral with spot at par with futures. Inventory data is bullish as API and EIA inventories decreased more than expected. The盘面 is bearish with the price below the 20 - day moving average. The主力持仓 is neutral with mixed changes in WTI and Brent long positions. The expectation is for short - term trading in the 462 - 472 range and long - term long positions at low prices [3]. 3.2 Recent News - Kazakhstan is considering options to comply with OPEC+ production cut obligations after Saudi's warning. Since OPEC+ decided to increase production on May 3, oil prices have fallen, and investment banks have lowered oil price forecasts. - Chinese Vice - Premier He Lifeng will visit Switzerland from May 9 - 12 and will hold talks with US Treasury Secretary as the Chinese lead on Sino - US economic and trade issues. He will also go to France to co - host the 10th China - France High - Level Economic and Financial Dialogue from May 12 - 16. - The US Energy Information Administration (EIA) expects the 2025 Brent crude price to be $66/barrel (previously $68) and 2026 to be $59/barrel (previously $61). It also adjusted the US oil production forecast for 2025 and 2026 downwards. - The EU announced a plan to stop importing Russian energy by 2027 [5]. 3.3 Long - Short Concerns - Likely to be Bullish: Not explicitly stated. - Likely to be Bearish: Demand optimism remains to be verified, the risk of tariff trade wars has increased significantly, and OPEC+ production increases are ahead of schedule. The market is driven by the combined impact of damaged demand due to US policies and potential rapid supply increases. Risks include the breakdown of OPEC+ unity and the escalation of war risks. There are also threats of sanctions on Iran and Venezuela's crude oil [6]. 3.4 Fundamental Data - Futures Market: Brent crude settled at $62.15 (up $1.92, 3.19%), WTI at $59.09 (up $1.96, 3.43%), SC at 457.8 (down 18.70, - 3.92%), and Oman at $61.77 (up $2.15, 3.61%) [7]. - Spot Market: UK Brent Dtd was at $62.90 (up $1.43, 2.33%), WTI at $59.09 (up $1.96, 3.43%), Oman at $61.93 (up $2.14, 3.58%), Shengli at $58.83 (up $1.25, 2.17%), and Dubai at $61.98 (up $2.39, 4.01%) [9]. - Inventory Data: API inventory decreased by 449.4 million barrels in the week ending May 2 (expected - 248 million barrels). EIA inventory decreased by 269.6 million barrels in the week ending April 25 (expected + 42.9 million barrels), and Cushing inventory decreased by 8.6 million barrels in the week ending April 25. As of May 6, Shanghai crude oil futures inventory was 464.4 million barrels, unchanged [3]. 3.5 Position Data - WTI Crude Oil: As of April 29, the net long position increased by 6,254 to 177,209 [16]. - Brent Crude Oil: As of April 29, the net long position decreased by 18,442 to 109,941 [18].