瑞银：中国房地产-4 月百强开发商销售额同比下滑 9%

Investment Rating - The report does not explicitly state an investment rating for the industry or specific companies within it Core Insights - The top 100 developers' contract sales in April 2025 decreased by 9% year-over-year (YoY), an improvement from a 12% decline in March 2025, attributed to a lower base effect [2] - Sequentially, contract sales fell by 10% month-over-month (MoM), which is worse than the average decline of 5% MoM from 2020 to 2024, indicating concerns over the macroeconomic outlook amid trade tariff tensions [2] - The secondary market remains active, with secondary listings on Beike in 50 cities increasing by 8.3% YoY and 7.4% year-to-date (YTD) as of April 29, 2025 [3] - SOE developers outperformed other categories, with a 5% YoY decline in contract sales, compared to a 9% decline for the top 100 developers overall [4] Summary by Sections Contract Sales Performance - Top 100 developers' contract sales dropped 9% YoY in April 2025, with a 10% MoM decline, indicating a challenging sales environment [6][15] - SOE developers showed resilience with a 5% YoY decline, while semi-SOE and POE developers faced larger declines of 31% and 6% respectively [4][19] Secondary Market Activity - The secondary transaction volume for 12 cities increased by 22% YoY, reflecting strong upgrade demand as homebuyers seek quality new homes [3][24] - Tier-1 cities' secondary listings increased by 2.8% YoY and 5.8% YTD, indicating a robust market despite overall sales declines [3][9] Developer Performance - Among SOE developers, C&D International, Yuexiu, and Jinmao recorded significant contract sales growth of 53%, 24%, and 8% YoY respectively, while others like Poly Property and Country Garden saw substantial declines [4][6] - The overall contract sales value for the top 100 developers dropped 7% YoY in April, a slight improvement from an 11% decline in March [12]