摩根大通：外汇展望-海湖庄园，协议与否

Investment Rating - The report maintains a bearish view on the USD, driven by underlying fundamentals rather than expectations of any multilateral accords [4][6]. Core Insights - The potential "Mar-a-Lago Accord" has been a topic of discussion among FX market participants, aimed at engineering USD weakness through various approaches, including punitive tariffs and adjustments in FX reserves [2][3]. - Recent USD weakness has been primarily European-led, attributed to a macro re-think regarding US exceptionalism and structural changes in US international policy [4][5]. - Asian FX appreciation has sparked speculation of a currency accord, indicating a potential shift in trade negotiations with the US [6][20]. - The report suggests that if USD/Asia continues to weaken, it would benefit cyclical currencies and broaden the dollar weakness, particularly impacting EUR/USD positively [40][41]. Summary by Sections USD Weakness Drivers - The report identifies cyclical and structural factors contributing to USD weakness, including declining real policy rates and a shift in US fiscal policy [5][9]. - Historical data indicates that the most bearish periods for the dollar occur when the term premium rises alongside a decline in Fed terminal rates [9][13]. Asian FX Dynamics - Recent movements in Asian currencies, particularly TWD, have broken historical records, leading to significant declines in USD against various Asian currencies [21][24]. - The report highlights that speculation around a currency accord has likely contributed to the strength of Asian FX, despite the absence of official confirmation [28][34]. Trade Recommendations - The report recommends buying AUD/USD and AUD/NZD, while suggesting selling USD/JPY and CHF/JPY as part of a macro portfolio strategy [65]. - It emphasizes that cyclical currencies like AUD are well-positioned to benefit from a potential rollback of tariffs and improved trade conditions [41][61].