建信期货棉花日报-20250507

Report Overview - Report Date: May 7, 2025 [2] - Industry: Cotton [1] - Research Analysts: Yu Lanlan, Lin Zhenlei, Wang Haifeng, Hong Chenliang, Liu Youran [3] 1. Investment Rating - No investment rating information is provided in the report. 2. Core View - The cotton planting progress is advancing steadily, and Zhengzhou cotton futures are fluctuating within a narrow range. The spot cotton price has declined, the cotton yarn market is sluggish, and the cotton fabric market is also weak. The downstream market is in a weak state, and the finished - product inventory is gradually accumulating. The current market lacks driving forces, and Zhengzhou cotton is mainly in a narrow - range adjustment [7][8]. 3. Summary by Section 3.1 Market Review and Operation Suggestions - Market Review: The latest 328 - grade cotton price index is 14,113 yuan/ton, down 70 yuan/ton from the previous trading day. The mainstream sales basis quotes for cotton in different regions of Xinjiang vary. The cotton yarn market has a dull trading atmosphere, with some spinning enterprises not yet resumed work. The cotton fabric market has weak sales, with few inquiries from traders, and the inventory of regular varieties is increasing [7]. - Market Situation: During the holiday, the macro - environment changed little, and the market is still concerned about tariff trends. In the overseas market, US cotton signing was okay in the week of April 24, and shipments increased month - on - month. The US cotton planting progress is slightly behind schedule, and the drought level is higher year - on - year. In the domestic market, there was cooling, rainfall, and snow in major cotton - planting areas in Xinjiang, but the overall impact is currently small. The downstream market is weak, and the finished - product inventory is accumulating slowly. The current futures market lacks driving forces, and Zhengzhou cotton is mainly in a narrow - range adjustment [8]. 3.2 Industry News - US Cotton Sales: As of the week of April 24, 2024/2025, the net signing of US cotton was 27,600 tons (month - on - month increase of 2,700 tons, year - on - year decrease of 15,400 tons). The cumulative signing this year is 2.579 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 48,600 tons. The cumulative signing accounts for 108.7% of the export forecast (April USDA), a year - on - year increase of 6 percentage points and an increase of 4.2 percentage points compared to the five - year average [9]. - US Cotton Shipment: The shipment of US cotton was 83,900 tons (month - on - month increase of 14,400 tons, year - on - year increase of 22,200 tons). The cumulative shipment this year is 1.827 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 15,800 tons. The shipment progress is 77%, a year - on - year increase of 5 percentage points and an increase of 9 percentage points compared to the five - year average [9]. 3.3 Data Overview - The report provides multiple data charts, including the China Cotton Price Index, cotton spot price, cotton futures price, cotton basis change, cotton contract spreads (CF1 - 5, CF5 - 9, CF9 - 1), cotton commercial inventory, cotton industrial inventory, warehouse receipt volume, and exchange rates (USD/CNY, USD/INR) [17][18][20][24][26].