Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report The report comprehensively analyzes various financial derivatives and commodity futures markets, including market conditions, news, and policy impacts. It provides operation suggestions based on the current market situation and future expectations for each product. For example, in the stock index futures market, it suggests selling out - of - the - money put options or going long on the June IM contract; in the gold market, it believes that gold has upward potential in the medium - to - long - term but may face short - term fluctuations [2][5][10]. Summary by Directory Financial Derivatives Financial Futures - Stock Index Futures: After the holiday, the A - share market showed a general upward trend. The four major stock index futures contracts also rose, but all had a basis discount. With the upcoming Sino - US trade negotiations and the implementation of domestic stability measures, it is recommended to sell out - of - the - money put options or go long on the June IM contract [2][3][5]. - Treasury Futures: The capital interest rate declined marginally, and the treasury futures showed mixed performance. Considering possible loose monetary policies and weak inflation and credit data in April, it is recommended to go long on treasury futures on dips and pay attention to the positive arbitrage strategy of T, TF, and TS contracts [6][7]. Precious Metals - Gold and Silver: Gold and silver prices rose significantly due to trade frictions, geopolitical conflicts, and the decline of the US dollar index. Gold is expected to reach $3500 per ounce this year, but it may face short - term fluctuations. Silver prices are expected to fluctuate between $32 - $33.5. It is recommended to be cautious in the short - term and consider selling out - of - the - money call options [10][12]. Container Shipping Index - The spot prices of container shipping continued to decline during the May Day holiday. The SCFIS and SCFI indices showed different trends. The global container shipping capacity increased year - on - year, and the demand in the eurozone and the US was in a certain state. It is recommended to wait for the shipping company's price quotes and consider widening the spread between the August and June contracts [13][14]. Commodity Futures Non - ferrous Metals - Copper: The spot price of copper increased slightly. The macro - level tariff pressure was slightly relieved, and the supply of raw materials was tight while the demand was resilient. The copper price is expected to fluctuate, and the main contract should pay attention to the pressure level of 77500 - 78500 [14][15][20]. - Zinc: The spot price of zinc decreased slightly. The supply of zinc ore was loose, but the production of refined zinc was affected by smelter maintenance. The demand from primary processing industries weakened. The zinc price is expected to fluctuate, and the main contract reference range is 21500 - 23500 [20][22][23]. - Tin: The spot price of tin decreased. The supply of tin ore is expected to be gradually repaired, and the demand improvement is limited. It is recommended to have a bearish view on the rebound of tin prices and pay attention to the recovery rhythm of raw materials on the supply side [24][25][26]. - Nickel: The spot price of nickel increased slightly. The macro - level tariff issue was temporarily stable, and the supply of nickel ore was tight. The nickel price is expected to fluctuate, and the main contract reference range is 122000 - 128000 [26][27][29]. - Stainless Steel: The spot price of stainless steel was basically stable. The cost was supported by the ore end, but the nickel - iron price was under pressure. The demand was slowly recovering, and the inventory pressure was slightly relieved. The stainless - steel price is expected to fluctuate weakly, and the main contract reference range is 12600 - 13000 [30][31][32]. - Lithium Carbonate: The spot price of lithium carbonate decreased. The supply pressure was still high, the demand was lackluster, and the inventory was high. The lithium - carbonate price is expected to run weakly, and the main contract reference range is 65000 - 70000 [34][35][37]. Black Metals - Steel: The spot price of steel was stable with a slight increase. The production of five major steel products increased slightly, and the inventory decreased. The steel price is expected to fluctuate, and the reference range for rebar is 3100 - 3300, and for hot - rolled coil is 3200 - 3400. It is recommended to wait and see for unilateral operations and pay attention to the arbitrage operation of going long on steel products and short on raw materials [38][39]. - Iron Ore: The spot price of iron ore increased slightly. The iron - water output remained high, and the port inventory continued to accumulate. The iron - ore price is expected to be under pressure, and the main contract reference range is 704.5 [40][41]. - Coke: The first round of coke price increase was implemented, but the second round was blocked. The supply and demand situation improved marginally. It is recommended to hold the strategy of going long on hot - rolled coil and short on coke and pay attention to the implementation of crude steel reduction [42][43][44]. - Coking Coal: The coking - coal market was weak, and the futures hedging pressure was large. The supply was high, and the demand was mainly based on on - demand procurement. It is recommended to hold the strategy of going long on hot - rolled coil and short on coking coal and pay attention to the implementation of crude steel reduction [45][47]. - Silicon Iron: The price of silicon iron decreased due to the reduction of settlement electricity prices in production areas. The supply pressure was relieved, and the demand was stable. The silicon - iron price is expected to run weakly [48][49][50]. - Silicon Manganese: The price of silicon manganese continued to decline due to the reduction of settlement electricity prices in production areas. The supply was in a state of reduction, and the demand was stable. The silicon - manganese price is expected to fluctuate weakly [51][52][54]. Agricultural Products - Meal Products: The price of domestic soybean meal decreased, and the price of rapeseed meal increased slightly. The price of US soybeans followed the decline of US soybean oil. The supply pressure from Brazil continued, and the domestic supply was expected to recover. It is recommended to pay attention to the support level around 2900 [55][56]. - Live Pigs: The spot price of live pigs was stable. It is expected that the secondary - fattened pigs will be slaughtered in May, which will put pressure on the price. The live - pig price is expected to remain volatile [57][58]. - Corn: The spot price of corn increased. The supply was tight, and the price was supported by the strong willingness of farmers to hold back sales. The downstream demand was limited, and the port inventory needed to be digested. The corn price is expected to fluctuate at a high level [59][60]. - Sugar: The price of raw sugar fluctuated weakly, and the domestic sugar price remained volatile at a high level. The supply concerns were relieved, and the domestic supply - demand situation was expected to be loose. The sugar price is expected to be volatile and weak after the holiday [61].
广发早知道：汇总版-20250507
Guang Fa Qi Huo·2025-05-07 03:54