建信期货镍日报-20250507

Report Overview - Report Title: Nickel Daily Report - Date: May 7, 2025 - Research Team: Nonferrous Metals Research Team of CCB Futures 1. Investment Rating - No investment rating for the industry is provided in the report. 2. Core View - The nickel market fundamentals are mixed. The surplus trend of primary nickel is difficult to reverse, but the support from the mining end is strong. In addition, the short - term supply pressure of intermediates has eased. The market is expected to be volatile and strong. It is recommended to go long at low levels and be vigilant against macro risks [8]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Market Review and Operation Suggestions - During the May Day holiday, LME nickel first declined and then rose due to macro factors. After the holiday, SHFE nickel was strong among non - ferrous metals, closing at 124,630 with a 0.48% increase, and the total index positions decreased by 1,617 to 155,125 lots [8]. - The spot market was average, and the premiums remained stable. The Jinchuan premium was flat at 2,250 yuan/ton, and the Russian nickel premium was 100 yuan/ton [8]. - Fundamentally, supported by the Indonesian PNBP royalty increase policy, the premium of Indonesian domestic trade nickel ore remained high. Although the HPM of nickel ore in May may decline slightly, it is still likely to rise in the future. For nickel sulfate, the reduction of Indonesian MHP and high - grade nickel matte projects led to tight raw material supply and stronger cost support, with the average price on the 6th increasing to 28,085 yuan/ton and expected to rise moderately [8]. - In terms of inventory, although the inventory accumulation trend continued, the LME and domestic inventories were decreasing marginally, providing short - term support for nickel prices [8]. 3.2 Industry News - IWIP emphasized the importance of occupational health and safety, organized a series of activities in April, and aimed to create a safe work environment [9][11]. - GFNI exported 56,625 wet metric tons of low - grade nickel ore to Indonesia on April 30, 2025. It plans to complete 91 shipments of 5 million WMT in 2025, with an expected revenue increase in double - digits due to capacity expansion and efficiency improvement [10]. - In Q1 2025, PT Vale Indonesia's nickel intermediate production was 17,027 metric tons, a 6% year - on - year and 8% quarter - on - quarter decline. Sales were 206.5 million US dollars, lower than the previous quarter due to reduced shipments and a 5% drop in the average nickel price. It also started commercial sales of about 80,000 tons of saprolite ore to domestic buyers and plans to increase sales to 290,000 tons in H1 2025 [11]. - SMM expects the HPM of Indonesian domestic trade nickel ore to decline by 3.16% in the first half of May compared to the previous period [12].