广发期货《黑色》日报-20250507

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings No information about industry investment ratings is provided in the reports. 2. Core Views of the Reports Steel - Market sentiment is recovering, with weekly data showing a slight increase in the output of five major steel products and continued inventory reduction. The current situation is tight, but the outlook is weak. Low inventory supports steel prices, and if demand expectations improve, low inventory can provide upward momentum for absolute prices. The recommended trading range for rebar is 3100 - 3300 yuan/ton, and for hot-rolled coils is 3200 - 3400 yuan/ton. It is advisable to wait and see for unilateral operations and focus on long steel and short raw material arbitrage operations [1]. Iron Ore - The 09 contract of iron ore oscillated, and the price is still under pressure in the short term. Administrative production cuts still have an impact, but the form and volume of production cuts are undetermined. This week, the daily average pig iron output continued to increase slightly, reaching a high level in the same period of history. The finished products downstream continued to reduce inventory, and steel mills' profits improved, leading to continued production resumption. The future of high production levels depends on the terminal demand. Inventory increased before the festival, and the port inventory slightly accumulated. The iron ore price is expected to continue to be under pressure [3]. Coke - The second round of spot price increases for coke before the festival faced resistance and is currently in a negotiation stage. Considering the weakening of coking coal, the second round of price increases may not be realized. After the festival, the ex-factory price of coke will remain stable in the short term, and the port trading price will be slightly weak. The supply side is increasing production due to good orders, and the demand side is supported by high pig iron production. However, the weak coking coal, overcapacity, and lack of pricing power of coke enterprises are the main reasons for the weak decline of coke prices. It is recommended to continue holding the strategy of long hot-rolled coils and short coke and pay attention to the implementation of crude steel production cuts [5]. Coking Coal - After the festival, the supply-demand situation remains loose in the short term. The supply side includes continued production resumption of domestic mines and reduced imports of Mongolian coal. The demand side shows that downstream users are replenishing inventory, but mainly on a need-to basis. The inventory of mines is high, and the port inventory is decreasing. High supply, high imports, and high inventory are the main reasons for the decline in coal prices. It is recommended to continue holding the strategy of long hot-rolled coils and short coking coal and pay attention to the implementation of crude steel production cuts [5]. Ferrosilicon - The main contract of ferrosilicon futures fell significantly, mainly due to the reduction of the settlement electricity price in Ningxia in April. The supply pressure has been relieved after previous production cuts, and the factory inventory has stopped increasing and started to decline, but the overall inventory is still at a medium to high level. The demand side shows an increase in pig iron production, and the non-steel demand has improved seasonally. The export growth in March is considered unsustainable. The cost side is stable, but the electricity price needs further monitoring. It is expected that the ferrosilicon price will be slightly weak in the short term [6]. Ferromanganese - The main contract of ferromanganese continued to decline, mainly due to the reduction of the settlement electricity price in Ningxia in April. The production reduction continued during the holiday, and the output increased slightly. The demand side is supported by high pig iron production, but the sustainability depends on the terminal demand. The manganese ore market is under pressure, with a decline in global shipments and high arrival volumes. It is expected that the ferromanganese price will fluctuate weakly in the short term [6]. 3. Summary by Directory Steel - Prices and Spreads: Rebar and hot-rolled coil prices showed different trends in different regions and contracts. The basis of some contracts changed [1]. - Cost and Profit: The cost of steel billets and some steel products decreased, and the profit of some steel products also decreased [1]. - Production: The daily average pig iron output and the output of five major steel products increased, with a significant increase in the electric furnace output of rebar [1]. - Inventory: The inventory of five major steel products, rebar, and hot-rolled coils decreased [1]. - Trading and Demand: The trading volume of building materials decreased, but the apparent demand of five major steel products, rebar, and hot-rolled coils increased [1]. Iron Ore - Prices and Spreads: The prices of iron ore warehouse receipts and spot increased slightly, and the basis and spreads of some contracts changed [3]. - Supply: The arrival volume at 45 ports, global shipments, and national monthly imports decreased [3]. - Demand: The daily average pig iron output, 45-port daily average ore removal volume, national monthly pig iron and crude steel production increased [3]. - Inventory: The 45-port inventory decreased slightly, and the inventory of 247 steel mills increased [3]. Coke - Prices and Spreads: The prices of coke contracts decreased, and the basis and spreads changed. The second round of spot price increases faced resistance [5]. - Supply: The daily average output of coking plants and steel mills increased [5]. - Demand: The pig iron output increased, and the inventory and available days of steel mills' coke increased [5]. - Inventory: The total coke inventory decreased slightly, the coking plant inventory decreased, and the port inventory decreased [5]. Coking Coal - Prices and Spreads: The prices of coking coal contracts decreased, and the basis and spreads changed. The market coal auction was cold after a short recovery [5]. - Supply: The production of domestic mines increased, and the import of Mongolian coal decreased [5]. - Demand: The coke output increased slightly, and the downstream users replenished inventory [5]. - Inventory: The inventory of mines was high, the port inventory decreased, and the inventory of downstream users was at a low level [5]. Ferrosilicon - Prices and Spreads: The price of the main contract of ferrosilicon decreased, and the spot prices in some regions decreased. The basis and spreads changed [6]. - Cost and Profit: The production cost in some regions decreased, and the production profit in some regions changed [6]. - Supply: The output of ferrosilicon remained stable, and the production enterprise's operating rate decreased slightly [6]. - Demand: The apparent demand remained stable, the pig iron output increased, and the steel output increased [6]. - Inventory: The inventory of 60 sample enterprises decreased, and the average available days of downstream users decreased [6]. Ferromanganese - Prices and Spreads: The price of the main contract of ferromanganese decreased, and the spot prices remained stable. The basis and spreads changed [6]. - Cost and Profit: The production cost in some regions decreased slightly, and the production profit remained stable [6]. - Supply: The production of ferromanganese decreased slightly, and the operating rate decreased [6]. - Demand: The apparent demand increased slightly, and the procurement volume of steel mills remained stable [6]. - Inventory: The inventory of 63 sample enterprises increased, and the average available days increased [6]. - Manganese Ore: The global manganese ore shipment decreased, the arrival volume increased, and the port inventory increased [6].