Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Ratings No industry investment ratings are provided in the report. 2. Core Views - The State Council Information Office announced multiple measures to stabilize employment, foreign trade, and promote consumption, which will be implemented in the second quarter. The White House showed an intention to ease tariffs, and China and the US will conduct foreign trade negotiations. The stock index had a positive start after the holiday, and the index has stable support below [2]. - Considering possible loose monetary measures in the future, the capital market is expected to loosen. The inflation and credit data for April to be released may be weak, and Treasury bond futures may fluctuate strongly [2]. - Gold prices fluctuate in the short - term. Silver faces resistance at previous highs and trades in the range of $32 - 33.5 (8000 - 8350 yuan) [2]. - The shipping quotes during the holiday decreased, and the container shipping index continued to fluctuate [2]. - Steel mill production has peaked, and the expectation of weakening long - term demand has increased. Iron ore is in a range - bound state, and the coking coal and coke markets have complex supply - demand situations [2]. - The settlement electricity price in the silicon - related product production areas has decreased, and the prices are running weakly [2]. - The supply - side of crude oil is gradually recovering, and the market still needs to focus on macro and geopolitical impacts [2]. - The supply and demand of various chemical products have different driving forces, and the prices show different trends [2]. - The prices of agricultural products are affected by factors such as external markets, supply, and demand, showing different trends [2]. - The prices of special and new energy products are also affected by various factors, such as supply - demand and market news [2]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Financial - Stock Index: After the holiday, the index generally rose. With stable support below, one can sell out - of - the - money put options to earn premiums. In the unilateral strategy, it is recommended to appropriately layout long positions on dips. In the futures - spot strategy, one can focus on the positive arbitrage strategy of T, TF, and TS contracts [2]. - Treasury Bond: Considering possible loose monetary measures and the possible weak inflation and credit data in April, Treasury bond futures may fluctuate strongly. Unilateral strategy: buy on dips; futures - spot strategy: focus on positive arbitrage of T, TF, and TS contracts [2]. - Precious Metals: Gold prices fluctuate in the short - term. One should be cautious in unilateral operations or sell relatively out - of - the - money call options at high prices after market expectations stabilize. Silver faces resistance at previous highs and trades in the range of $32 - 33.5 (8000 - 8350 yuan) [2]. Black - Steel: Mill production has peaked, and the expectation of weakening long - term demand has increased. One can focus on the long - steel short - raw material arbitrage [2]. - Iron Ore: Pig iron production remains high, and port inventories continue to accumulate. It is in a range - bound state, with the range referring to 700 - 745 [2]. - Coke: The first round of price increase has been implemented, the supply - demand situation has improved marginally, but the second - round price increase was blocked, and the futures price increase expectation was broken. One can go long on hot - rolled coils and short on coke [2]. - Coking Coal: The market auction has weakened again. Although coal mine production has slightly increased, the high inventory still has the possibility of decline, and the futures hedging pressure is still large. One can go long on hot - rolled coils and short on coking coal [2]. Non - ferrous - Copper: It has a strong real - world fundamental situation, waiting for macro - level drivers. The main contract should focus on the resistance level of 77500 - 78500 [2]. - Zinc: The smelter maintenance has boosted the price, but the terminal downstream performance has weakened. The main contract reference range is 21500 - 23500 [2]. - Tin: Adopt a short - on - rebound strategy [3]. - Silicon - related Products: The settlement electricity price in the production areas has decreased, and the prices are running weakly. The lower support for silicon iron is around 5300, and for silicon metal, it is around 5400 [2]. Energy and Chemical - Crude Oil: The supply - side is gradually recovering, and the market still needs to focus on macro and geopolitical impacts. The WTI fluctuates in the range of [59, 69], Brent in [60, 70], and SC in [450, 510]. Unilateral strategy: short - term long; pay attention to macro and geopolitical impacts [2]. - PX: The supply - demand driving force is limited, and the price is supported at a low valuation. It fluctuates in the range of 6000 - 6400 in the short - term. The upward space of the PX9 - 1 spread is limited under the pressure of warehouse receipts. One can mainly expand the PX - SC spread at a low level [2]. - PTA: The supply - demand driving force is strong, and the price support is strong. It fluctuates in the range of 4200 - 4500 in the short - term. TA9 - 1 is in a short - term positive arbitrage situation and a medium - term reverse arbitrage situation. PTA is a long - position allocation in the industrial chain [2]. - Other Chemical Products: Each chemical product has different supply - demand situations and price trends, and corresponding trading strategies are provided [2]. Agricultural - Different agricultural products such as soybeans, hogs, corn, oils, sugar, cotton, eggs, apples, jujubes, peanuts, and soda ash are affected by factors such as external markets, supply, and demand, showing different price trends and corresponding trading suggestions are given [2]. Special and New Energy - Special products such as glass, rubber, and industrial silicon, as well as new energy products such as polysilicon and lithium carbonate, are affected by factors such as supply - demand, market news, and production delays, and corresponding trading suggestions are provided [2].
广发期货日评-20250507
Guang Fa Qi Huo·2025-05-07 06:17