瑞达期货螺纹钢产业链日报-20250507

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core View of the Report On Wednesday, the RB2510 contract rose and then pulled back. Macroscopically, China and the US will hold high - level economic and trade talks, and the central bank has taken measures to stabilize the real - estate market with three moves: reserve requirement ratio cut, interest rate cut, and reduction of provident fund interest rate. In terms of supply and demand, the weekly output of rebar increased by 4.27 tons this period, the capacity utilization rate remained above 50%, the EAF steel mill operating rate decreased again, the inventory decreased for nine consecutive weeks, and the apparent demand turned from decline to increase. Overall, the tariff issue has eased, and domestic macro - policies are favorable, but the market lacks confidence in long - term demand. Technically, the 1 - hour MACD indicator of the RB2510 contract shows that DIFF and DEA rebounded from low levels. The operation suggestion is short - term intraday trading with attention to risk control [2]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market - The closing price of the RB main contract was 3,098 yuan/ton, up 21 yuan; the position volume was down 30,150 hands; the net position of the top 20 in the RB contract was - 36,912 hands, up 26,989 hands; the RB10 - 1 contract spread was - 28 yuan/ton, up 4 yuan; the RB warehouse receipt at the SHFE was 162,503 tons, down 28,838 tons; the HC2510 - RB2510 contract spread was 119 yuan/ton, unchanged [2]. 3.2 Spot Market - The price of HRB400E 20MM in Hangzhou (theoretical weight) was 3,220 yuan/ton, up 10 yuan; in Hangzhou (actual weight) was 3,303 yuan/ton, up 10 yuan; in Guangzhou (theoretical weight) was 3,440 yuan/ton, up 10 yuan; in Tianjin (theoretical weight) was 3,220 yuan/ton, up 20 yuan. The basis of the RB main contract was 122 yuan/ton, down 11 yuan; the spot price difference between hot - rolled coil and rebar in Hangzhou was 70 yuan/ton, up 20 yuan [2]. 3.3 Upstream Situation - The price of 61.5% PB fines at Qingdao Port was 775 yuan/wet ton, up 9 yuan; the price of quasi - first - grade metallurgical coke in Hebei was 1,500 yuan/ton, unchanged; the price of 6 - 8mm scrap steel in Tangshan (tax - excluded) was 0 yuan/ton, down 2,235 yuan; the price of Q235 billet in Hebei was 0 yuan/ton, down 2,960 yuan. The domestic iron ore port inventory was 14,302.48 million tons, up 41.48 million tons; the coke inventory of sample coking plants was 66.85 million tons, down 1.75 million tons [2]. 3.4 Industry Situation - The coke inventory of sample steel mills was 674.87 million tons, up 8.45 million tons; the blast furnace operating rate of 247 steel mills was 84.35%, up 0.41 percentage points; the blast furnace capacity utilization rate was 92.03%, up 0.41 percentage points; the billet inventory in Tangshan was 0 million tons; the output of rebar of sample steel mills was 233.38 million tons, up 4.27 million tons; the capacity utilization rate of rebar of sample steel mills was 51.16%, up 0.93 percentage points; the factory inventory of rebar of sample steel mills was 173.16 million tons, down 20.57 million tons; the social inventory of rebar in 35 cities was 470.84 million tons, down 37.76 million tons; the operating rate of independent EAF steel mills was 71.88%, down 1.04 percentage points; the domestic crude steel output was 9,284 million tons, up 1,687 million tons; the monthly output of Chinese rebar was 1,861 million tons, up 247 million tons; the net export volume of steel was 996 million tons, up 247 million tons [2]. 3.5 Downstream Situation - The national real - estate climate index was 93.96, up 0.17; the cumulative year - on - year growth rate of fixed - asset investment was 4.20%, down 0.10 percentage points; the cumulative year - on - year growth rate of real - estate development investment was - 9.90%, up 0.10 percentage points; the cumulative year - on - year growth rate of infrastructure investment (excluding power) was 5.80%, down 0.20 percentage points; the cumulative value of housing construction area was 613,705 million square meters, down 7,733 million square meters; the cumulative value of new housing construction area was 12,996 million square meters, down 6,383 million square meters; the unsold commercial housing area was 42,158 million square meters, up 1,016 million square meters [2]. 3.6 Industry News - The People's Bank of China decided to cut the rediscount rate by 0.25 percentage points from May 7, 2025. After the cut, the 3 - month, 6 - month, and 1 - year agricultural and small - business rediscount rates are 1.2%, 1.4%, and 1.5% respectively, the PSL rate is 2.0%, and the special structural monetary policy tool rate is 1.5%. The Ministry of Commerce stated that on the basis of fully considering global expectations, China's interests, and the appeals of the US industry and consumers, China decided to agree to contact with the US. He Lifeng, the Chinese leader for China - US economic and trade affairs, will hold talks with US Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen during his visit to Switzerland from May 9 to 12 [2]. 3.7 Key Points to Watch - The weekly output, factory inventory, and social inventory of rebar on Thursday [2].