合成橡胶产业日报-20250507

Report Overview - Report Date: 2025-05-07 - Report Title: Synthetic Rubber Industry Daily Report 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints - Recently, the domestic raw material supply is abundant, prices are weakening, and cost support is insufficient. The overall inventory of butadiene rubber production enterprises has decreased slightly. Under the expectation of increased supply, the trading focus of the spot market is under pressure, with a decrease in production enterprise inventory and an increase in sample trading enterprise inventory. The inventory level is at the mid - year position, and it is expected that the inventory of butadiene rubber enterprises will increase in the short term. In terms of demand, last week, the capacity utilization rate of domestic tire enterprises decreased significantly on a week - on - week basis. This is mainly because some enterprises gradually entered the maintenance or load - reduction operation stage due to the holiday, dragging down the enterprise capacity utilization rate. The capacity utilization rate is expected to gradually recover after the holiday. The short - term trading range for the br2506 contract is recommended to be between 11,000 and 11,800 [2]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Market Data 3.1.1 Futures Market - The closing price of the main synthetic rubber contract is 11,375 yuan/ton, with a week - on - week increase of 60 yuan/ton; the position of the main contract is 25,104, with a week - on - week decrease of 639. The synthetic rubber 6 - 7 spread is - 50 yuan/ton, with a week - on - week increase of 25 yuan/ton. The total warehouse receipt quantity of butadiene rubber in warehouses is 7,470 tons, with a week - on - week increase of 190 tons [2]. 3.1.2 Spot Market - The mainstream price of butadiene rubber (BR9000) from Qilu Petrochemical in Shandong is 11,600 yuan/ton; from Daqing Petrochemical in Shandong is 11,550 yuan/ton; from Daqing Petrochemical in Shanghai is 11,600 yuan/ton; from Maoming Petrochemical in Guangdong is 11,650 yuan/ton, all with no week - on - week change. The basis of synthetic rubber is 275 yuan/ton, with a week - on - week decrease of 10 yuan/ton [2]. 3.1.3 Upstream Situation - Brent crude oil is at 62.15 dollars/barrel, with a week - on - week increase of 1.92 dollars/barrel; WTI crude oil is at 59.09 dollars/barrel, with a week - on - week increase of 1.96 dollars/barrel. The price of Northeast Asian ethylene is 790 dollars/ton, with no week - on - week change; the price of naphtha CFR Japan is 554.75 dollars/ton, with a week - on - week increase of 8.5 dollars/ton; the intermediate price of butadiene CFR China is 1000 dollars/ton, with no week - on - week change; the mainstream price of butadiene in the Shandong market is 9175 yuan/ton, with a week - on - week decrease of 25 yuan/ton. The weekly capacity of butadiene is 14.78 million tons/week, with a week - on - week increase of 0.85 million tons/week; the capacity utilization rate of butadiene is 68.86%, with a week - on - week decrease of 1.89 percentage points. The port inventory of butadiene is 36,500 tons, with a week - on - week increase of 1700 tons; the operating rate of Shandong local refineries' atmospheric and vacuum distillation units is 48.5%, with a week - on - week increase of 1.39 percentage points. The monthly output of butadiene rubber is 12.83 million tons, with a month - on - month increase of 1.65 million tons; the weekly capacity utilization rate of butadiene rubber is 67.17%, with a week - on - week increase of 4.41 percentage points. The weekly production profit of butadiene rubber is 136 yuan/ton, with a week - on - week increase of 515 yuan/ton; the weekly social inventory of butadiene rubber is 3.23 million tons, with a week - on - week increase of 0.02 million tons [2]. 3.1.4 Downstream Situation - The weekly ending inventory of butadiene rubber in manufacturers is 26,850 tons, with a week - on - week decrease of 1790 tons; the weekly ending inventory of butadiene rubber in traders is 5100 tons, with a week - on - week increase of 1490 tons. The weekly operating rate of domestic semi - steel tires is 72.43%, with a week - on - week decrease of 5.68 percentage points; the weekly operating rate of domestic all - steel tires is 56.24%, with a week - on - week decrease of 6.22 percentage points. The monthly output of all - steel tires is 13.69 million pieces, with a month - on - month increase of 3.09 million pieces; the monthly output of semi - steel tires is 59.66 million pieces, with a month - on - month increase of 11.56 million pieces. The weekly ending inventory days of all - steel tires in Shandong is 43.08 days, with a week - on - week increase of 0.35 days; the weekly ending inventory days of semi - steel tires in Shandong is 45.91 days, with a week - on - week increase of 0.31 days [2]. 3.2 Industry News - As of April 30, according to Longzhong Information statistics, the inventory of high - cis butadiene rubber sample enterprises in China was 32,000 tons, a decrease of 300 tons compared with the previous period (April 23, 2025), a week - on - week decrease of 0.93%. During this period, approaching the Labor Day holiday, some downstream enterprises made appropriate stockpiling of raw materials. The continuous increase of raw material butadiene has slightly alleviated the market's bearish sentiment, but under the influence of the expected increase in supply, the trading focus of the spot market is under pressure. The inventory of sample production enterprises has decreased, and the inventory of sample trading enterprises has increased. As of April 30, the capacity utilization rate of Chinese semi - steel tire sample enterprises was 66.69%, a week - on - week decrease of 5.67 percentage points and a year - on - year decrease of 12.29 percentage points; the capacity utilization rate of Chinese all - steel tire sample enterprises was 59.54%, a week - on - week decrease of 6.25 percentage points and a year - on - year increase of 11.74 percentage points [2]. 3.3 Key Points to Watch - There is no news today [2].