LPG早报-20250507

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 2. Core View - The LPG market is expected to be dominated by weak oscillations. During the May Day holiday, the decline of the overseas LPG market was less than that of crude oil, and the oil - gas ratio decreased. The official prices of May CP were released before the holiday, with propane and butane down 5/15 to 610/590 US dollars respectively, higher than market expectations. The increase in CP discount drove up import costs, providing some support for propane prices. The domestic civil LPG price remained stable overall, with the cheapest deliverable product priced at 4820 yuan/ton. Fundamentally, high arrivals led to significant port inventory accumulation; factory inventory decreased slightly due to upstream inventory clearance before the holiday, but downstream restocking demand was average. After the holiday, arrivals are expected to decline gradually, especially US - sourced arrivals. Upstream refinery outflows are expected to be stable in the short term, with an expected increase in June. Chemical demand is expected to be average. The demand for alkylated oil is weak, and factories are not very willing to increase production in the short term. Although MTBE has some short - term support from terminal restocking demand, it is expected to operate weakly due to oversupply. Some PDH factories may reduce production due to raw material procurement issues. Although there may be short - term restocking demand after the holiday, the LPG market is expected to be weak overall [1] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalog Price and Market Data - From April 25, 2025, to May 6, 2025, the prices of LPG in South China, East China, and Shandong, as well as the price of propane CFR South China, propane CIF Japan, MB propane spot, CP forecast contract price, Shandong ether - after carbon four, and Shandong alkylated oil all showed certain fluctuations. For example, on May 6, South China LPG increased by 50 to 5230, East China LPG increased by 10 to 4935, and Shandong LPG decreased by 60 to 4770. The paper import profit and the main basis also changed. The daily change on May 6 showed that East China LPG increased by 10, Shandong LPG decreased by 60, propane CIF Japan decreased by 22, MB propane spot decreased by 17, CP forecast contract price increased by 7, Shandong ether - after carbon four decreased by 130, and Shandong alkylated oil decreased by 100. The main basis decreased by 102 [1] - On Tuesday, for civil LPG, Shandong decreased by 50 to 4770, East China increased by 10 to 4935, and South China increased by 50 to 5230. For imported gas, East China decreased by 5 to 5153, and South China remained unchanged at 5240. Shandong ether - after carbon four decreased by 130 to 4840. The lowest price was Shandong civil LPG at 4770. The PG futures market was strong, the basis of the 06 contract weakened to 323, and the PG06 - 07 spread was 97, basically unchanged. The US - to - Far - East arbitrage window was closed [1]