芳烃橡胶早报-20250507

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints - For PTA, in May, the overall de - stocking of PX and PTA continues, but the far - month supply - demand is expected to weaken as polyester reduces its load. PTA processing fees have fully recovered, and attention should be paid to the opportunity of expanding PXN at low prices and the opportunity of shrinking PTA processing fees at high prices in the long - term [2]. - For MEG, the marginal situation is in the de - stocking stage, but the port de - stocking amplitude may be limited due to hidden inventories. The far - month supply - demand mainly focuses on the changes in imports and ethane - based production benefits under the influence of subsequent tariffs [2]. - For polyester staple fiber, there is still pressure for inventory accumulation in the future, but the futures processing fee is not high, and the price is supported by the low spread between raw and recycled materials [2]. - For natural rubber and 20 - number rubber, the main contradictions are the relatively low absolute level of national explicit inventory, the slight rebound of Thai cup - lump rubber price, and the state of stockpiling. The recommended strategy is to wait and see [2]. 3. Summary by Product PTA - Price and Margin Changes: From April 25 to May 6, the price of crude oil decreased by $0.9, the price of PTA internal - market spot remained unchanged, the PTA processing difference decreased by 58, and the polyester gross profit increased by 73 [2]. - Device Changes: Hengli Huizhou's 2.5 million - ton device was under maintenance, Yisheng Dalian's 2.25 million - ton device was under maintenance, and Taihua's 1.2 million - ton device was restarted [2]. - Supply - Demand Outlook: PX and PTA are expected to continue de - stocking in May, but the far - month supply - demand will weaken as polyester reduces its load [2]. MEG - Price and Margin Changes: From April 25 to May 6, the MEG internal - market price decreased by 26, and the MEG coal - based profit decreased by 26 [2]. - Device Changes: Shanghai Petrochemical's 380,000 - ton device was restarted, and Guizhou Qianxi's 300,000 - ton device was under maintenance [2]. - Supply - Demand Outlook: The marginal situation is in the de - stocking stage, but the port de - stocking amplitude may be limited, and the far - month supply - demand depends on tariff - related factors [2]. Polyester Staple Fiber - Price and Margin Changes: The daily change on May 6 showed that the short - fiber profit increased by 48, and the pure - polyester yarn profit increased by 15 [2]. - Device Maintenance: No device maintenance information was provided this week [2]. - Supply - Demand Outlook: There is still pressure for inventory accumulation, but the futures processing fee is not high, and it is supported by the low spread between raw and recycled materials [2]. Natural Rubber & 20 - Number Rubber - Price Changes: From April 25 to May 6, the price of US - dollar Thai standard spot increased by 30, and the price of Shanghai full - latex increased by 240 [2]. - Supply - Demand Outlook: The main contradictions are the low explicit inventory, the rebound of cup - lump rubber price, and the stockpiling situation. The recommended strategy is to wait and see [2]. Styrene - Price Changes: From April 25 to May 6, the price of pure benzene (CFR China) decreased by $56, the price of styrene (Jiangsu) decreased by 265, and the price of EPS (East China ordinary material) decreased by 175 [6]. - Profit Changes: The domestic profit of styrene remained at - 79, and the domestic profit of EPS decreased by 55 [6].