Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core Views - Methanol: Iran's low methanol shipments may lead to inventory reaching a seasonal low by the end of April. If there is an unexpected supply gap in May, low inventory levels will provide a safety margin for long - positions [1]. - Plastic (Polyethylene): Overall polyethylene inventory is neutral. The 05 basis is around +300 in North and East China. Import profit is around -400 with no further increase. Attention should be paid to US quotes and new device commissioning [6]. - PP (Polypropylene): Polypropylene inventory has increased in upstream and mid - stream. The 05 contract may face pressure under over - capacity. Pressure relief requires increased exports or monthly maintenance of 2 million tons of PDH devices [6]. - PVC: The PVC basis has strengthened. Mid - upstream inventory is decreasing, and spring maintenance may bring the operating rate to 75%. Attention should be paid to export, coal prices, housing sales, terminal orders, and operating rates [9]. 3. Summary by Commodity Methanol - Price Data: From April 25 to May 6, the price of Jiangsu spot decreased from 2440 to 2445, with a daily decrease of -8 on May 6. The import profit remained at 218, and the main contract basis increased from 30 to 175 [1]. - Viewpoint: Due to low shipments from Iran, inventory is expected to reach a seasonal low at the end of April. In May, inventory may accumulate, but low inventory at the end of April will still be a trading factor [1]. Plastic (Polyethylene) - Price Data: From April 25 to May 6, the price of North China LL decreased from 7330 to 7230, with a daily decrease of -70 on May 6. The main contract futures price decreased from 7150 to 6987, and the basis increased from 190 to 260 [6]. - Viewpoint: Overall inventory is neutral. The 05 basis is around +300 in North and East China. Import profit is around -400. Attention should be paid to US quotes and new device commissioning [6]. PP (Polypropylene) - Price Data: From April 25 to May 6, the price of East China PP decreased from 7180 to 7125, with a daily decrease of -30 on May 6. The main contract futures price decreased from 7097 to 6995, and the basis increased from 70 to 110 [6]. - Viewpoint: Upstream and mid - stream inventory has increased. The 05 contract may face pressure under over - capacity. Pressure relief requires increased exports or monthly maintenance of 2 million tons of PDH devices [6]. PVC - Price Data: From April 25 to May 6, the price of calcium carbide method in East China decreased from 4850 to 4740, with a daily decrease of -60 on May 6. The basis increased from -180 to -170 [8][9]. - Viewpoint: The basis has strengthened. Mid - upstream inventory is decreasing, and spring maintenance may bring the operating rate to 75%. Attention should be paid to export, coal prices, housing sales, terminal orders, and operating rates [9].
甲醇聚烯烃早报-20250507
Yong An Qi Huo·2025-05-07 13:35