沥青早报-20250507

Report Summary 1) Report Industry Investment Rating No investment rating is provided in the report. 2) Core Viewpoint of the Report This week, due to the tightening supply of crude oil and rising oil prices, asphalt prices increased. Shandong's spot prices rose slightly, and the futures market strengthened marginally. With low production and a slight increase in shipments, factory inventories continued to decline while social inventories increased, resulting in stable overall inventories. The market is showing marginal improvement. Although the fundamentals have slightly improved, the short - term outlook is weakly stable, and inventories are expected to gradually accumulate at a low level in the first half of the year. The price is expected to fluctuate with crude oil, and attention should be paid to the actual inventory situation and the impact of US sanctions on raw materials. Consider long positions in distant contracts such as the 09 contract [1]. 3) Summary by Directory a) Daily Review Shandong's spot prices remained stable, with a market reference price of 3,510 - 3,700 yuan/ton. The asphalt futures market fluctuated, and crack spread profits were at a moderate level. Gasoline and diesel prices in Shandong increased slightly. Asphalt daily production was 6.3 (+0) million tons [1]. b) Weekly Viewpoint - Price Movement: This week, due to tight crude oil supply and rising oil prices, asphalt prices increased. Shandong's spot prices rose slightly, and the futures market strengthened marginally [1]. - Inventory Status: Low production and a slight increase in shipments led to a continuous decline in factory inventories and an increase in social inventories, resulting in stable overall inventories. The market is showing marginal improvement. The north has a tight supply, while the supply in East and South China is relatively abundant [1]. - Factors Affecting the Market: Positive factors include low inventory levels, tight and expensive heavy - oil raw materials, and a decrease in production in April. Negative factors include weak demand, weak spot prices in East and South China, and price cuts by Sinopec [1]. - Outlook and Suggestions: The fundamentals have slightly improved, and the short - term outlook is weakly stable. Inventories are expected to gradually accumulate at a low level in the first half of the year. The price is expected to fluctuate with crude oil. Attention should be paid to the actual inventory situation and the impact of US sanctions on raw materials. Consider long positions in distant contracts such as the 09 contract [1].