有色早报-20250507

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Ratings - No industry investment ratings are provided in the report. Group 2: Core Views of the Report - Copper prices are expected to range between 77,000 - 78,000 yuan in the short term, with concerns about downstream demand capping the upside. Aluminum absolute prices should be observed, and aluminum internal - external reverse arbitrage should take profit. Zinc prices will follow macro - drivers in the short term, with low - inventory support, and mid - May spot tightness should be watched. Nickel - stainless steel ratio contraction opportunities can be continued to be monitored. Stainless steel anti - arbitrage can be rolled over. Lead prices are expected to decline next week. Tin prices have strong support in the short term, and long - term shorting opportunities should be watched. Industrial silicon prices will likely oscillate at the bottom in the long term. Lithium carbonate prices will likely oscillate weakly in the long term [1][2][3][5][7][11][13] Group 3: Summary by Metal Copper - Macro - level tariff information has been disturbing the market, causing sentiment to fluctuate. Fundamentally, copper inventories continue to decline, and next - week's restocking demand is expected to support point - pricing volume. Copper rod and copper foil operating rates remain high, supported by State Grid orders. The scrap - refined spread has stabilized, and scrap copper supply is expected to increase. The pre - holiday inventory pattern is expected to continue, and post - holiday de - stocking persistence should be monitored. Copper prices are expected to range between 77,000 - 78,000 yuan in the short term [1] Aluminum - Supply has increased slightly, with large aluminum ingot imports from January to March. Profile consumption is improving, and downstream profits have improved after price drops, leading to some restocking and export - grabbing. Inventory de - stocking will be gentle from May to June. Due to tariff concerns, absolute prices should be observed, and aluminum internal - external reverse arbitrage should take profit. Month - to - month positive arbitrage can be held if prices fall [1] Zinc - Zinc prices have rebounded and oscillated widely, with improved tariff sentiment. Domestic TC is unchanged, and imported TC has risen slightly. April's domestic smelting output increased by about 20,000 tons month - on - month, and May may see a decline due to maintenance. Overseas Benchmark is set at $80/dry ton, slightly lower than expected. Demand is driven by rush - installation, with weak overseas demand. Domestic social inventory is at a low level, and the inflection point from de - stocking to inventory accumulation is expected in mid - to - late May. LME inventory has declined slightly. Short - term prices will follow macro - drivers, with support at the bottom. Long - term supply recovery and consumption over - draft should be considered for shorting opportunities after the holiday, and internal - external positive arbitrage can be held [2] Nickel - Pure nickel production remains high. Demand is weak, and Jinchuan's premium has weakened. Overseas and domestic inventories remain stable. The market has become desensitized to tariff policies. Short - term fundamentals are weak, and tariff uncertainty remains. Opportunities for narrowing the nickel - stainless steel ratio can be continued to be monitored [3] Stainless Steel - April's production increased seasonally, and May may see passive production cuts. Demand is mainly for essential needs. Nickel and chrome iron prices are under pressure. Inventory de - stocking in Xifu has slowed, and some exchange warehouse receipts have expired. Fundamentals are weak, and under tariff influence, single - side prices are expected to be under pressure, while anti - arbitrage can be rolled over [3] Lead - Lead prices have oscillated. Supply - side scrap battery recycling is weak, and mid - stream recycling smelters are increasing production. Demand is weak during the May Day holiday. Battery export orders have declined slightly. The refined - scrap spread is 25, and LME inventory is increasing. Consumption is weak in the off - season. This week's price oscillation led to limited downstream de - stocking. Some recycling smelters have cut production due to raw material shortages, and lead prices are expected to decline next week with smelter复产 [5] Tin - Tin prices have oscillated widely. Supply - side African Alphamin is preparing to restart production, and Myanmar's short - term restart needs negotiation. Indonesian exports are normal, and MSC in Malaysia is shut down until the end of April. Demand - side solder factories are recovering seasonally, and downstream restocking is strong when prices fall. Domestic inventories are slightly decreasing, and overseas inventories are oscillating at a low level. Short - term raw material supply is tight, and the de - stocking speed of visible inventories should be monitored. Prices are supported in the first half of the year, and long - term shorting opportunities should be watched [7] Industrial Silicon - After northern production cuts, other large factories have not continued to cut production. Southwest small factories are operating stably. Downstream organic silicon enterprises are under maintenance, and demand is declining. Social inventory is starting to decline but remains high. Short - term supply and demand are both decreasing, reaching a tight balance. Long - term prices are expected to oscillate at the bottom [11] Lithium Carbonate - Lithium carbonate prices have oscillated downward. Downstream inquiries prefer new or discounted goods, but new - goods transactions are poor. Some producers are reluctant to sell. Overall production has declined, and inventory accumulation has slowed. US energy - storage orders have been cut, and downstream only maintains safety inventory. In the long - term, with many expansion projects, prices will likely oscillate weakly. Short - term demand is in a small peak season, but policy - driven demand improvement is less than expected. Lithium ore prices are falling, and downstream may restock. High - cost production capacity may be cleared. Future dynamic - storage demand is expected to be optimistic, but supply - side pressure persists [13]