建信期货油脂日报-20250508

Group 1: Basic Information - Reported industry: Oil and fat [1] - Report date: May 8, 2025 [2] - Research analysts: Yu Lanlan, Lin Zhenlei, Wang Haifeng, Hong Chenliang, Liu Youran [3] Group 2: Market Review and Operational Suggestions Market Review - P2509: Previous settlement price 7984, opening price 7946, highest price 7974, lowest price 7884, closing price 7914, down 70 (-0.88%), trading volume 748717, open interest 426121, open interest change 58556 [7] - P2505: Previous settlement price 8392, opening price 8300, highest price 8310, lowest price 8204, closing price 8204, down 188 (-2.24%), trading volume 128, open interest 340, open interest change -108 [7] - Y2509: Previous settlement price 7752, opening price 7728, highest price 7814, lowest price 7726, closing price 7786, up 34 (0.44%), trading volume 356383, open interest 602826, open interest change 18909 [7] - Y2505: Previous settlement price 7884, opening price 8140, highest price 8140, lowest price 7620, closing price 7900, up 16 (0.20%), trading volume 34, open interest 1198 [7] - O1509: Previous settlement price 9242, opening price 9186, highest price 9362, lowest price 9180, closing price 9335, up 93 (1.01%), trading volume 435548, open interest 302424, open interest change 21448 [7] - O1505: Previous settlement price 9208, opening price 9195, highest price 9330, lowest price 9193, closing price 9310, up 102 (1.11%), trading volume 135, open interest 1326, open interest change -132 [7] - Jiangsu market soybean oil basis price: First-grade soybean oil, spot 09+400, June - September 09+300; Third-grade rapeseed oil 09+150 [7] - May East China; Guangxi rapeseed oil traders' basis quotes: Third-grade rapeseed oil in Qinfang factories 09+0; East China 24-degree palm oil, May 20 - June 15 delivery P09+480 yuan/ton, June 25 - July 25 delivery P09+400 yuan/ton [7] Operational Suggestions - Palm oil futures market: Despite being in an oversold state technically, fundamental negative factors will continue to affect the market. As the main palm oil producing areas enter the peak production period, inventory will rise significantly in the coming months, and palm oil prices are expected to remain under pressure. The decline in crude oil makes the future demand outlook for B40 unclear, and the soybean-palm oil price spread is gradually returning to normal [8] - Soybean oil: There is still an expectation of a large number of imported soybeans arriving at ports, and the tight supply of soybean oil is expected to ease, with the possibility of a later basis decline [8] - Rapeseed oil: It is greatly affected by import policies. The forecast of future purchase shipments is significantly lower year-on-year, showing a relatively strong performance. Attention should be paid to policy changes such as tariffs and biodiesel [8] Group 3: Industry News - Malaysia's palm oil production in April 2025 was estimated to be 1.73 million tons by MPOA, a 24.62% increase month-on-month. Peninsular Malaysia's production increased by 28.06% month-on-month, Sabah's by 24.07%, Sarawak's by 11.37%, and East Malaysia's by 20.76% [9] - SPPOMA data showed that Malaysia's palm oil production from May 1 - 5 increased by 60.17% month-on-month, with the fresh fruit bunch (FFB) yield increasing by 61.58% month-on-month and the oil extraction rate (OER) increasing by 0.59% month-on-month [9] - Reuters estimated Malaysia's palm oil production in April to be 1.62 million tons, imports 50,000 tons, exports 1.1 million tons, consumption 338,000 tons, and inventory 1.794 million tons; Bloomberg estimated production at 1.62 million tons, exports at 1.13 million tons, imports at 70,000 tons, consumption at 325,000 tons, and inventory at 1.79 million tons [9] - As of the end of the 18th week of 2025, China's domestic soybean oil inventory was 581,000 tons, an increase of 20,000 tons (2.92%) from last week; the contract volume was 1.322 million tons, a decrease of 23,000 tons (1.66%) from last week. Coastal inventory was 516,000 tons, an increase of 22,000 tons (3.48%) from last week; the contract volume was 1.32 million tons, a decrease of 20,000 tons (1.51%) from last week [10] Group 4: Data Overview - The report provides multiple graphs, including the spot price of East China third-grade rapeseed oil, East China fourth-grade soybean oil, South China 24-degree palm oil, palm oil basis change, soybean oil basis change, rapeseed oil basis change, P1 - 5 spread, P5 - 9 spread, P9 - 1 spread, US dollar to Malaysian ringgit exchange rate, and US dollar to Chinese yuan exchange rate, with data sources from Wind and the Research and Development Department of CCB Futures [13][14][25]