建信期货集运指数日报-20250508

Report Information - Report Title: Container Shipping Index Daily Report [1] - Date: May 8, 2025 [2] - Research Team: Macro Finance Team [4] - Researchers: He Zhuoqiao, Huang Wenxin, Nie Jiayi [3] Investment Rating - No investment rating information provided in the report. Core View - The spot price of container shipping in the second half of May is basically the same as that in the first half. The supply pressure may increase due to the re - allocation of vessels from the US route. The June freight rate contract is likely to remain weak, while the August peak - season contract may be boosted by improved sentiment. It is recommended to participate based on short - term oversold rebound and pay attention to the progress of talks [8]. Summary by Section 1. Market Review and Operation Suggestions - Spot Market: The online quotes for the second half of May are basically flat compared to the first half. The lowest price for Maersk's large container is $1480, and in the first half, the price was $1647 due to better demand. Other airlines' prices are mostly in the range of $1650 - $2000 [8]. - Supply: Affected by the sharp decline in US - route demand, airlines are re - allocating vessels to other routes, increasing supply pressure, especially in late May [8]. - Operation Suggestion: Although there is a short - term relaxation in Sino - US relations, it will still take a long time to reach an agreement. The June freight rate contract is hard to reverse its decline, while the August peak - season contract may be more positively affected. It is advisable to focus on short - term oversold rebounds and monitor the progress of talks [8]. 2. Industry News - Market in late April: From April 28th to 30th, the China Export Container Shipping Market declined slightly. Transport demand was weak before the holiday, and most route freight rates fell, dragging down the composite index [9]. - Manufacturing PMI: China's official manufacturing PMI in April was 49, down 1.5 percentage points from the previous month, indicating a decline in manufacturing prosperity [9]. - European Route: The eurozone's April composite PMI was 50.1, slightly above the boom - bust line, mainly dragged down by the service industry. The future European economic outlook is uncertain due to tariff issues [9]. - North American Route: In March, the US merchandise trade deficit reached $162 billion, a record high. The consumer confidence index in April continued to decline. The North American route's transport demand remained low, and the spot booking price increased slightly [10]. - Diplomatic News: Chinese Vice - Premier He Lifeng will hold talks with US Treasury Secretary Bezant from May 9th to 12th at the US request. China firmly opposes US tariff abuse and advocates equal and reciprocal dialogue [10]. - Other News: Talks on a Gaza cease - fire are close to completion. The US plans to charge additional fees for Chinese ships docking at US ports. Maersk will adjust the peak - season surcharge for routes from Far - East countries (excluding China and Hong Kong) to the US and Canada [10]. 3. Data Overview 3.1 Container Shipping Spot Prices | Route | May 4, 2025 | April 28, 2025 | Change | MoM (%) | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | SCFIS: European Route (Base Ports) | 1379.07 | 1429.39 | - 50.32 | - 3.5% | | SCFIS: US - West Route (Base Ports) | 1320.69 | 1230.28 | 90.41 | 7.3% | [12] 3.2 Container Shipping Index (European Route) Futures Market | Contract | Previous Settlement Price | Opening Price | Closing Price | Settlement Price | Change | Change Rate (%) | Trading Volume | Open Interest | Open Interest Change | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | EC2506 | 1312.2 | 1325.0 | 1288.2 | 1331.4 | - 24.0 | - 1.83 | 53581 | 39510 | 3642 | | EC2508 | 1503.6 | 1560.0 | 1559.6 | 1595.5 | 56.0 | 3.72 | 39237 | 36138 | 3696 | | EC2510 | 1272.4 | 1259.9 | 1287.9 | 1311.8 | 15.5 | 1.22 | 11837 | 17426 | 1332 | | EC2512 | 1457.6 | 1439.4 | 1460.7 | 1481.4 | 3.1 | 0.21 | 1893 | 4091 | 101 | | EC2602 | 1297.0 | 1263.8 | 1291.4 | 1317.2 | - 5.6 | - 0.43 | 982 | 2735 | 132 | | EC2604 | 1192.2 | 1166.0 | 1182.6 | 1194.0 | - 9.6 | - 0.81 | 849 | 1144 | 372 | [6] 3.3 Shipping - Related Data Charts - The report provides multiple charts, including the trends of the main and secondary main contracts of container shipping European - route futures, global container shipping capacity, global container ship orders, Shanghai - Europe base - port freight rates, and Shanghai - Rotterdam spot freight rates [18][19][20]