建信期货鸡蛋日报-20250508

Report Overview - Report Date: May 8, 2025 [2] - Reported Industry: Egg [1] - Research Team: Agricultural Products Research Team [4] 1. Investment Rating - No investment rating information is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints - The egg price in the spot market declined today, with the average price in the main production areas at 3.11 yuan/jin, down 0.07 yuan/jin from yesterday, and the average price in the main sales areas at 3.33 yuan/jin, down 0.08 yuan/jin from yesterday. The 06 contract dropped 0.31% [7]. - During the May Day holiday, the egg price was slightly weak, and there was no large - scale restocking after the holiday. Although the cross - regional population flow increased during the holiday, the actual consumption demand was average. If the restocking after the holiday remains sluggish, it is likely that supply and demand have both increased, with supply growing at a larger rate, resulting in the price not rising during the peak season. There is an expectation of Dragon Boat Festival stocking at the end of the month, but the scale is difficult to match that of May Day, and the egg price is likely to remain weak in the long run as June approaches the rainy season [8]. - Affected by the weak spot market, the futures price fluctuated and declined before the holiday and continued to fall after the holiday. The main 06 contract fell below 2900 points. Due to the difficult - to - refute expectation of the rainy season, it will enter the delivery month with a high premium. There is insufficient bullish news for futures, and attention should be paid to the change of the basis. Currently, the 06 basis is still lower than in the previous two years, indicating that there may be room for further downward adjustment of the futures price. In the far - month contracts, the pricing of 08 and 09 is at a moderately low level in history, corresponding to the expectation of increasing production in the future. If the spot price continues to fluctuate weakly, the near - month contracts are not optimistic [8]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Market Review and Operation Suggestions - Market Review: The prices of egg futures contracts 2506, 2507, and 2508 all declined today. The 2506 contract closed at 2890, down 9 points or 0.31%; the 2507 contract closed at 3028, down 10 points or 0.33%; the 2508 contract closed at 3665, down 13 points or 0.35%. The trading volumes were 75,935, 28,155, and 22,821 respectively, and the open interests were 123,581, 118,220, and 104,910 respectively, with changes of 3750, 3147, and 4616 respectively [7]. - Analysis and Outlook: The egg price was weak during the May Day holiday, and the restocking after the holiday was lackluster. Although the population flow increased during the holiday, the actual consumption was average. The egg price is expected to remain weak in the long run due to the approaching rainy season. The futures price was affected by the weak spot market, and the 06 contract entered the delivery month with a high premium. Attention should be paid to the change of the basis [8]. 3.2 Industry News - In - production Laying Hens Inventory: As of the end of April, the national in - production laying hens inventory was about 1.329 billion, a month - on - month increase of 0.8% and a year - on - year increase of 7.2%. The inventory has been increasing for four consecutive months [9]. - Chick Hatchlings: In April, the monthly hatchling volume of sample enterprises was about 46.99 million, an increase compared to March and the same period in 2024, ranking third in the past eight years [9]. - Hen Culling: The culling volume gradually recovered after the Spring Festival, with the absolute value slightly higher than in the previous two years due to the continuous decline in breeding profits. However, the culling volume decreased in the past two weeks. As of April 24, the average culling age was 536 days, the same as the previous week and 2 days earlier than the previous month [9][10]. 3.3 Data Overview - The report provides multiple data charts, including the monthly inventory of in - production laying hens in China, egg - breeding profits, the average price of eggs in the main production areas, the seasonal trend of the 05 egg contract, the basis of the 06 egg contract, and the price difference between the 05 and 06 egg contracts, with data sources from Wind, Zhuochuang Information, and other platforms [11][17]