摩根士丹利：中美将开启贸易谈判；我们预计关税将逐步缓和

Investment Rating - The report maintains a cautious outlook on the US-China trade relationship, expecting gradual tariff de-escalation but with elevated tariffs remaining in place [2][3]. Core Insights - The report anticipates that the US and China will initiate trade talks soon, leading to a phased reduction in tariffs, although the effective tariffs on China will remain high at 45% by year-end [2][3]. - China's real GDP growth is projected to decline from 5.4% year-on-year in Q4 2024 to 3.7% year-on-year in Q4 2025, with the peak impact of tariffs expected in Q2 2025 [3]. Summary by Sections - Trade Talks: Vice Premier He Lifeng will meet with US Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent, marking the first high-level talks since recent tariff escalations [1]. - Tariff Projections: Current US effective tariffs on China are at 107%, expected to decrease to 45% by the end of 2025, indicating a significant reduction but still at elevated levels [2]. - Economic Impact: The report highlights a full percentage point dip in China's GDP year-on-year due to tariff impacts, with the most significant effects felt in Q2 2025 [3].