摩根士丹利：中美会谈前夕，北京意外放宽货币政策

Investment Rating - The report maintains a reactive and supply-centric policy stance, indicating a cautious outlook on real GDP growth, projecting a deceleration to below 4.5% year-on-year in Q2 and below 4% in Q3, compared to 5.4% in Q1 [1] Core Insights - The People's Bank of China (PBoC) has introduced a new round of monetary easing, slightly exceeding market expectations, to bolster domestic market confidence ahead of US-China negotiations [1] - Key measures include a 50 basis point cut in the reserve requirement ratio (RRR), releasing Rmb1 trillion in long-term liquidity, and a 10 basis point cut in the policy rate to 1.4% [3] - A total of Rmb1.1 trillion in relending quota has been allocated, with specific quotas for service consumption, elderly care, sci-tech innovation, agriculture, and small businesses [3] - The report anticipates a supplementary fiscal package of Rmb1-1.5 trillion to be announced in the second half of the year [1] Summary by Sections Monetary Policy Measures - The PBoC's measures include a 50 basis point RRR cut, releasing Rmb1 trillion in liquidity [3] - A 10 basis point reduction in the policy rate to 1.4% and a 25 basis point cut for structural monetary policy tools [3] - An increase in relending quotas, with Rmb500 billion for service consumption and elderly care, Rmb300 billion for sci-tech innovation, and Rmb300 billion for agriculture and small businesses [3] Economic Outlook - The report projects a rapid deceleration in real GDP growth to below 4.5% in Q2 and below 4% in Q3, down from 5.4% in Q1 [1] - The overall policy stance remains reactive and supply-centric, which may only partially mitigate tariff shocks [1]