摩根士丹利：化工行业-尿素价格上涨，钾肥小幅上涨，磷肥基本持平；大豆压榨利润大多上升

Investment Rating - Industry View: In-Line [5] Core Insights - Urea prices have increased significantly, with US NoLa urea prices rising by $36/st to $440-552/st fob WoW, driven by potential Chinese export resumption and strong domestic demand [1] - Potash prices have seen modest increases, with SE-Asia MOP prices up by $5/t to $335-355/t cfr WoW, while US NoLa MOP prices rose by $2/st to $315-320/st fob [2] - Phosphate prices remained largely unchanged, although select markets are experiencing upward price pressure due to changes in Indian pricing policies and potential updates on Chinese phosphate fertilizer exports [3] Summary by Sections Urea Market - China is expected to resume urea exports in May, with a projected export quota of 3-4 million tons for 2025, while US prices have jumped significantly [1] - Brazilian urea prices increased by $13/t to $390-415/t cfr, reflecting a shift in market dynamics post-China news [1] Potash Market - Potash prices in SE-Asia rose by $5/t to $335-355/t cfr, while US NoLa prices increased by $2/st to $315-320/st fob, indicating stable demand despite a quiet market [2] - Chinese port inventories have dropped below 2 million tons, prompting expectations for new contract settlements [2] Phosphate Market - Most global DAP/MAP benchmarks remained stable, but Indian players are expected to increase activity in the market following the reversal of a price ceiling [3] - Updates on Chinese phosphate fertilizer exports are anticipated, with discussions on DAP/MAP export quota allocations expected to follow the Chinese Labor Day holiday [3] Soy Crush Dynamics - Brazil's soy harvest is 94.8% complete, ahead of last year's pace, while Argentina's harvest is lagging at 23.6% complete [9] - US soybean planting is at a record 18% complete, with the EPA issuing an emergency waiver for E15 sales during the summer driving season [9] - Global soy crush margins have mostly increased, with US margins rising to $1.33/bu, driven by lower input costs [10]