摩根士丹利：中国房地产-4 月挂牌量增加，房价下跌加快

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "In-Line" [8] Core Insights - Secondary home prices in major cities experienced a faster month-on-month decline of 1.7% in April, with a year-on-year drop of 9.9% across approximately 50 tracked cities [2] - 82% of the cities reported month-on-month price decreases, indicating a broad market weakness [2][19] - Total listings increased by 2.1% month-on-month in April, with over 80% of cities having higher listings compared to pre-easing levels in September 2024 [3] - Visitations to agent shops decreased by 16% month-on-month but increased by 19% year-on-year, suggesting a seasonal effect [4][20] - The report anticipates further declines in home prices and sales in May and June, potentially delaying market recovery by 6-12 months [5] - The report recommends a defensive and selective approach, focusing on state-owned enterprises (SOEs) with good visibility [6] Summary by Sections Market Performance - Secondary listing prices fell by 2.0% month-on-month in April, marking the fastest decline since 2022, with 91% of sample cities recording downward adjustments [2][18][14] - The overall sentiment in the market is weakening, with expectations of a 5-10% year-on-year decline in secondary sales volume in the second quarter [4] Listings and Transactions - New secondary listings decreased by 14% month-on-month, while total listings continued to rise, indicating a shift in market dynamics [3] - The report highlights that 86% of the sample cities recorded month-on-month increases in total listings, despite a decline in new listings [3] Recommendations - The report suggests two alpha ideas: 1. Consumption beneficiaries with re-rating potential, such as CR Land (1109.HK) and CR Mixc (1209.HK) [6] 2. High dividend yield companies with good visibility, including C&D (1908.HK) and Greentown Management (9979.HK) [6]