摩根大通：铁矿石-全球动荡中价格坚挺；维持 2025 年目标价 100 美元 吨。

Investment Rating - The report maintains an iron ore price forecast of $100/t for 2025, indicating a stable outlook amidst global economic challenges [1][5][14]. Core Insights - Global steel output has started the year relatively flat, with a decrease of 0.4% in Q1 2025, driven by a 1.7% decline in the Rest of the World (RoW) while China saw a slight increase of 0.6% [1][4][11]. - The forecast for global steel production in 2025 has been revised down from a growth of 20 million tons (Mt) to a decline of 5 Mt, primarily due to reduced expectations for RoW production [1][4][14]. - Iron ore supply has faced disruptions due to severe weather conditions in Australia, leading to a reduction of 10 Mt in Australian supply forecasts for 2025 [1][4][28]. - Despite these challenges, iron ore prices have shown resilience, remaining near $100/t, with only slight fluctuations following tariff announcements [1][4][5]. Summary by Sections Global Steel Production - Global steel output is down 0.4% year-to-date (YTD) in Q1 2025, with China showing a positive trend in April [4][19]. - The report anticipates a contraction in crude steel production in China by 1.5% in 2025, with a total output forecast of 990 Mt [7][8][14]. Iron Ore Supply and Demand - Iron ore supply disruptions in Q1 2025 have led to a significant decrease in Australian production forecasts, with China’s port stocks adjusting to meet demand [1][4][11]. - The report highlights a balanced supply-demand scenario, with iron ore prices expected to remain stable at $100/t due to cost curve support and an unchanged outlook for China [1][5][28]. Price Forecasts - The price forecast for iron ore remains unchanged at $100/t for 2025, reflecting a stable market despite external economic pressures [5][14][28]. - The report notes that the medium-term outlook may see a loosening of supply-demand dynamics as new projects come online, particularly from Simandou starting in Q2 2026 [5][28].