Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content found Group 2: Core View of the Report - The overall fundamentals of urea are bearish, but the UR2509 contract basis, the position of the close price relative to the 20 - day moving average, and the net long position of the main contract are bullish factors. The short - term trend of the urea main contract is expected to be volatile due to high daily production, restocking of inventory, declining compound fertilizer production, and weak agricultural demand [4]. - The bullish factor is the expectation of export policy, while the bearish factors include high daily production, restocking of inventory, and weakening demand. The main logic is the high daily production on the supply side and the marginal change in demand [5]. Group 3: Summary by Relevant Catalogs Urea Overview - Fundamentals: Before the holiday, the urea futures market rebounded significantly due to news. The supply side has a high operating rate and new production capacity coming online, with expected high daily production. Inventory decreased from a high level and then quickly restocked. On the demand side, the operating rate of compound fertilizers in industrial demand dropped significantly, compound fertilizer inventory increased, some compound fertilizer enterprises resold urea raw materials, the operating rate of melamine was neutral, and agricultural demand weakened. There is still no definite news on the liberalization of urea export policies. The spot price of the deliverable product is 1900 (+10), and the overall fundamentals are bearish [4]. - Basis: The basis of the UR2509 contract is 19, with a premium - discount ratio of 1.0%, which is bullish [4]. - Inventory: The comprehensive UR inventory is 1.31 million tons (+128,000), which is bearish [4]. - Futures Disk: The 20 - day moving average of the main UR contract is flat, and the closing price is above the 20 - day line, which is bullish [4]. - Main Position: The net position of the main UR contract is long, which is bullish [4]. - Expectation: The short - term trend of the urea main contract is a rebound. With high daily production, restocking of inventory, declining compound fertilizer production, and weakening agricultural demand, the UR is expected to fluctuate today [4]. Spot and Futures Market - Spot: The spot price of the deliverable product is 1900 (+10), the Shandong spot price is 1900 (+10), the Henan spot price is 1900 (unchanged), and the FOB China price is 1882 [6]. - Futures: The price of the UR09 contract is 1881 (+24), the UR01 contract is 1795 (+17), and the UR05 contract is 1916 (+47). The basis of the UR2509 contract is 19 (-14) [6]. Inventory - The comprehensive UR inventory is 1.31 million tons (+128,000), the UR manufacturer inventory is 1.192 million tons, and the UR port inventory is 118,000 tons [6]. Supply - Demand Balance Sheet - From 2018 to 2025E, the urea production capacity has been increasing, with growth rates ranging from 8.4% to 15.5%. Production, net imports, apparent consumption, and other indicators have also shown corresponding changes. For example, in 2024, the production capacity was 4418.5, the production was 3425, the net import was 360, and the apparent consumption was 3785 [10].
大越期货尿素早报-20250508
Da Yue Qi Huo·2025-05-08 02:10