原油成品油早报-20250508

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided Group 2: Core View of the Report - The crude oil market is dominated by the supply surplus pressure brought by OPEC+ production increase. Although the announced production increase in June is in line with market expectations, the clearer production increase tendency for the future has a greater impact on market sentiment, intensifying the medium - and long - term crude oil surplus expectation. It is expected that oil prices will operate weakly after the holiday [6] Group 3: Summary by Relevant Catalogs 1. Market Data - From April 28 to May 7, WTI decreased from $62.05 to $58.07, a change of -$1.02; BRENT decreased from $65.86 to $61.12, a change of -$1.03; DUBAI decreased from $67.95 to $61.53, a change of -$0.46 [3] - The OMAN price decreased from $66.66 to $61.48, a change of -$0.64; the domestic gasoline price increased from 7800 to 7600, a change of 20.00 [3] 2. Daily News - Russia is considering tightening budget rules when oil prices fall; Capital Economics has lowered its end - of - year price forecast for Brent crude from $70 to $60 and the 2026 end - of - year forecast from $60 to $50 per barrel [3][4] - Kazakhstan is considering options to fulfill OPEC+ production cut obligations; the European Commission will propose to phase out all remaining Russian natural gas and liquefied natural gas imports by the end of 2027 [4] - EIA has lowered its price expectations for WTI and Brent crude for this year and next, while raising this year's global crude oil demand forecast and lowering next year's [4] 3. Regional Fundamentals - In the week ending May 2, US crude oil exports decreased by 11.5万桶/日 to 400.6万桶/日; domestic crude oil production decreased by 9.8万桶 to 1336.7万桶/日 [4] - Commercial crude oil inventories excluding strategic reserves decreased by 203.2万桶 to 4.38 billion barrels, a decrease of 0.46%; the strategic petroleum reserve (SPR) inventory increased by 58.0万桶 to 3.991 billion barrels, an increase of 0.15% [4][5] - In China, from April 24, the main refinery operating rate generally decreased, while the Shandong local refinery operating rate rebounded. Gasoline production decreased and diesel production increased. Gasoline and diesel prices dropped significantly, and middle and downstream buyers replenished stocks at low prices. Gasoline inventories decreased by 1.06% and diesel inventories decreased by 0.69% [5] 4. Weekly View - Saudi Arabia is reluctant to further cut supply to support the oil market and may increase production and expand market share; OPEC+ announced an increase of 41.4万桶/日 in June, and the actual increase in June may be 35.9万桶/日 considering compensation cuts [6] - OPEC+ is preparing to accelerate oil production increase before October and may gradually cancel the voluntary production cut of 2.2 million barrels/日 before November if the production cut situation of member countries does not improve [6]