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大越期货天胶早报-20250508
Da Yue Qi Huo·2025-05-08 02:28

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided 2. Core Viewpoints - The fundamentals of natural rubber are neutral with supply increasing, foreign spot prices rising, domestic inventories starting to increase, and tire operating rates rebounding [6]. - The market is dominated by sentiment, suggesting short - term trading [6]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Daily Prompt - The supply of natural rubber is increasing, foreign spot prices are rising, domestic inventories are starting to increase, and tire operating rates are rebounding. The overall assessment is neutral [6]. - The spot price is 14700 with a basis of - 110, which is bearish [6]. - The inventory of the Shanghai Futures Exchange increased week - on - week and decreased year - on - year; the inventory in Qingdao increased week - on - week and decreased year - on - year, which is neutral [6]. - The 20 - day line is downward, and the price is running above the 20 - day line, which is neutral [6]. - The main positions are net short with an increase in short positions, which is bearish [6]. 3.2 Fundamental Data 3.2.1 Spot Price - The spot price of 2023 full - latex (non - deliverable) increased on May 7 [10]. 3.2.2 Inventory - The exchange inventory is seasonally increasing [16]. - The inventory in Qingdao has decreased recently [19]. 3.2.3 Import - The import volume has rebounded [22]. 3.2.4 Downstream Consumption - Automobile production and sales are seasonally rebounding [25][28]. - Tire production reached a new high in the same period [31]. - Tire industry exports reached a new high in the same period [34]. 3.3 Multi - empty Factors 3.3.1 Bullish Factors - The domestic economy is gradually recovering [8]. - Downstream consumption is at a high level [8]. - Raw material prices are relatively strong [8]. 3.3.2 Bearish Factors - Supply is increasing [8]. - Market inventories are increasing [8]. - The external environment is bearish [8]. 3.4 Basis - The basis narrowed on May 7 [37].